San Andreas Fault Earthquake "Locked, Loaded & Ready to Roll"

California officials took the unusual step of issuing an earthquake advisory this week about slightly elevated risks on the San Andreas Fault (SAFZ) related to a swarm of low magnitude quakes near Bombay Beach. At the National Earthquake Conference in May, Tom Jordan (Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center) announced that the SAFZ is "Locked, loaded and ready to roll." That he was willing to depart from careful scientific language, and do so in front of global media, was notable.

The quake swarm at the Bombay Beach “sweet spot” started with an M4.3 on Monday, September 26. Bombay Beach has been identified by scientists as the most likely location where the next “Big One” on the San Andreas Fault will someday start to fracture. The location is near the south end of the Salton Sea.

Although the swarm has cooled, the fault is significantly overdue and has much accumulated stress. It is not exactly true that small earthquakes release stress. The strains just transfer to nearby fault structures.

When the SAFZ fails will essentially trap nearly 24 million Southern Californians inside the region with no viable roads in or out and no access to any modern infrastructure such as electricity, water, natural gas, and fiber optics communications. Medical services will be extremely compromised, and supply chains for food and other vital necessities will be cut off. The aftermath chaos is likely to last at least two weeks, and maybe more.

Shaking will last in most of the San Gabriel Valley for about two full minutes as compared with the mere seconds of the Northridge earthquake. Displacements will approach six feet per second. Many more structures will be damaged than in past quakes, and about 1,600 fires are expected throughout the region. If unchecked, some will likely spread through whole neighborhoods.

The dangers to the region posed by an event on the SAFZ were what led the Earthquake Country Alliance in 2008 to begin what is now known as ShakeOut. ShakeOut is an earthquake drill on the third Thursday in October each year. Last year nearly a quarter of the state's population participated. The event this year will be held on October 20 at 10:20 a.m., but participants can indicate they will drill at an alternate date and time if that is more convenient.

In addition, the Environmental Committee of the Irwindale Chamber of Commerce is sponsoring a disaster planning seminar for businesses on Wednesday, October 5 from 9:00 to 11:30 a.m.

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the historical record shows that 75% of businesses which fail to have a functional and tested emergency plan when crisis hits will be out of business within three years. Some fail immediately, while some struggle for a while before shutting down. The losses of jobs and resources can greatly impede the ability of an entire community to rebuild and recover. Plus, every business has a basic legal compliance obligation to protect their occupants, although the number and types of additional obligations vary from one business to another.

The October 5 seminar for businesses will be led by award-winning speaker and business owner April Kelcy, Founder and CEO of Earthquake Solutions.

It will be held at the City of Hope facility at 4920 Rivergrade Road in Irwindale. Registration is required and there is a small fee. Registration can be accomplished either on-line at www.register.irwindalechamber.org or by calling 626-960-6606.