Warm Winter Expected for South Florida

MIAMI — While snow and ice threaten much of the country, South Florida promises to have a warmer than normal winter.

That's the expectation of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which is calling for increased odds of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the months of December to February.

The current La Niña pattern is one of the main factors leading to these possible conditions.

But don't put away your winter clothing just ye, Meteorologists also caution that cold snaps can still occur that may lead to freezing conditions over parts of South Florida.

The dry conditions we experienced in November are likely to continue through most of the winter. The National Weather Service says it will continue to monitor groundwater levels and be ready to alert of possible drought conditions if these dry conditions materialize over the next two months.

November was the first full month of the dry season, according to meteorologists, with all areas recording below normal precipitation. No measurable precipitation fell at all in the Naples Municipal Airport during the entire month, the first time on record this has happened in the month of November. In fact, no measurable precipitation has fallen at Naples Municipal since October 6th, a streak of 59 days.

Other locations which didn’t receive any measurable precipitation in November include LaBelle and South Bay.

A total of five cold fronts passed through South Florida in November, however moisture and associated rainfall were limited with each of these fronts due to the presence of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico and much of the continental United States.

Most of these cold fronts were followed by only slightly cooler air, except for the cold front on Nov. 20 which dropped temperatures into the upper 30s over interior sections of southwest Florida on the morning of Nov. 21.

Temperatures elsewhere across South Florida ranged from the mid to upper 40s along the Gulf coast to the lower and mid-50s along the east coast.

Tidal flooding was observed with the monthly high tides along the Intracoastal Waterway areas of Southeast Florida from Nov. 13-15, with impacts not as significant as the October high tides. Otherwise, no significant impact weather occurred across South Florida in November.

Virtually all areas received less than an inch and a half of rain, with most locations not even reaching a half-inch of rain (0.5”) for the entire month (Figure 2). Only isolated areas in central metro Broward County recorded over two inches of rain. Eastern areas received slightly more rainfall than interior and western areas. A total of 10 locations had among their top 10 driest Novembers on record.

The periodic cold fronts that passed through South Florida kept temperatures near normal for most of the month. Average monthly temperatures were mainly within 0.5 degrees of the 30-year normal.

Here are some weather highlights from November:

• Miami International Airport had an average November temperature of 74.6 degrees.
• Palm Beach International Airport had an average November temperature of 73.2 degrees Fahrenheit. This is 0.4 degrees above the 30-year normal. The average high temperature was 80 degrees Fahrenheit and the average low temperature was 66 degrees Fahrenheit, the warmest.
• Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport had an average November temperature of 74.8 degrees Fahrenheit. This is 0.7 degrees below the 30-year normal. The average high temperature was 81 degrees Fahrenheit and the average low temperature was 69 degrees Fahrenheit. The warmest November temperature was 85 degrees on Nov. 2 and the coolest was 56 degrees on Nov. 21.
• Naples Municipal Airport had an average November temperature of 72.5 degrees Fahrenheit. This is 0.4 degrees above the 30-year normal. The average high temperature was 83 degrees Fahrenheit and the average low temperature was 62 degrees. The warmest November temperature was 89 degrees on Nov.2 and the coolest was 48 on Nov 21. This is 0.3 degrees below the 30-year normal. The average high temperature was 81 degree and the average low temperature was 68 degrees. The warmest November temperature was 85 degrees on Nov. 2 and the coolest was 58 on Nov. 21.

For the latest south Florida weather information, including the latest watches, advisories and warnings, please visit the National Weather Service Miami Forecast Office’s web site at weather.gov/southflorida.

Image courtesy NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The left side shows December-February temperature probability while the right shows the precipitation probability.