Winter 'Snow Drought' In Maryland Forecast To Stretch Into Late January

MARYLAND — Two storms headed to the Mid-Atlantic next week are likely to produce snow in parts of Maryland's western counties, but rain along the Interstate 95 corridor, continuing a weather pattern that is expected to keep the Baltimore region “stuck in a snow drought,” according to meteorologists at AccuWeather.

The first storm is expected to arrive in the Baltimore-D.C. area Sunday into Monday, and the second system should arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday. But the chance of snow is likely only in parts of the mountains of West Virginia, western Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York state on Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday.

"For snow lovers in and near the big I-95 cities in the Northeast, it will be another disappointing storm, where umbrellas and raincoats will be the needed accessories, rather than snow boots and gloves," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said Thursday.

With neither of the two storms expected to produce measurable snow, there is an excellent chance that the snow drought from D.C. to New York City will continue. No measurable snow has fallen so far this winter in D.C., Philadelphia and New York City, according to AccuWeather.

The average first accumulating snowfall has been shifting later into the calendar year in recent decades in much of the coastal U.S. Northeast because of climate change and urbanization, according to The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that snow droughts will occur more frequently amid climate change.

During winter, snow that accumulates on the ground and remains frozen acts as "snowpack," which typically acts as a natural reservoir to provide water during the summer months, the NOAA says. A snow drought reduces the amount of snowpack that can get released upon melting. This hurts streamflow and soil moisture, which can impact water supplies, fisheries, vegetation, wildfire and wildlife.

Baltimore and D.C. are about a month away from setting a record for the latest date for their first measurable snowfall in a winter. The latest first measurable snow in Baltimore is Feb. 21, and the latest first measurable snow in D.C. is Feb. 23.

New York City is 10 days away from setting the record for the latest measurable snowfall in a winter. Its latest measurable snowfall is Jan. 29.

Even the coldest and snowiest parts of the Mid-Atlantic have seen historically low snowfall so far this winter, according to the Capital Weather Gang. Canaan Valley, one of the snowiest regions of West Virginia, is about 42 inches below average to date.

"Snow lovers are probably best advised to head West for reliable snow until further notice," the Capital Weather Gang said, noting the huge snowfall in the Sierra Nevada mountain range and the Rockies.

For Thursday night, the National Weather Service said showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorm, before 10 p.m. in Maryland. The NWS also issued a hazardous weather outlook for the D.C. area, with dense fog possible in areas across the region.

Here's the NWS forecast for the Baltimore-D.C. region for the next few days:

Thursday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers between 10pm and 1am. Patchy fog before 2am. Low around 43. Light and variable wind becoming west 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Sunday: Rain likely after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: Rain likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: A chance of rain before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.