Thanksgiving Travel Forecast 2022: When Should Marylanders Hit The Road?

MARYLAND — If you’re among the estimated 54.6 million Thanksgiving travelers this year, timing your departure from Maryland can make the trip less stressful.

The auto club AAA said in its Thanksgiving travel prediction released Tuesday that nearly 49 million Americans will travel by car during the long weekend. For travel purposes, the holiday weekend is considered Wednesday, Nov. 23 through Sunday, Nov. 27. Thanksgiving Day is on Thursday, Nov. 24.

AAA’s data partner INRIX expects severe traffic in U.S. metro areas. The most congested will likely be Atlanta, Chicago, New York City and Los Angeles. Some drivers will experience more than double the amount of time stuck in traffic during peak travel windows.

Other busy metros are Boston, Detroit, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, D.C.

AAA predicted that 1.05 million Marylanders will travel 50 miles or more from home on Thanksgiving weekend. That's up from the 1.04 million travelers last year, but it's still down from 2019 when the 1.16 million Maryland travelers were the second most on record for the holiday.

This year, about 956,000 Marylanders will drive to their destinations. That's up from the 912,000 from last year and down from the 1.05 million road travelers in 2019.

Marylanders are paying more at the pump, but AAA doesn't think that will keep travelers off the road.

Friday's national gas price average is $3.70 per gallon, which is up 29 cents from last year. Maryland’s average price of $3.67 is up 32 cents from a year ago.

“Consistent with what we have been seeing throughout the year at AAA, the demand for travel has continued and the Thanksgiving holiday is certainly no exception,” said Ragina Cooper Ali, spokeswoman for AAA in Maryland and Washington, D.C. “Despite increased costs across the board, people are making plans and finding ways to spend time with family and friends.”

To avoid the most hectic times, travel early in the morning on Wednesday or before 11 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day. Avoid traveling between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

In general, the best and worst times to be on the road are:

Wednesday, Nov. 23 — worst times, 11 a.m. to 8 p.m.; best times, before 8 a.m. and after 8 p.m.

Thursday, Nov 24 — worst times, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m.; best times, before 11 a.m. and after 6 p.m.

Friday, Nov. 25 — worst times, 4 p.m. to 8 p.m..; best times, before 11 a.m. and after 8 p.m.

Saturday, Nov. 26 — worst times, 4 p.m. to 8 p.m.; best times, before 2 p.m. and after 8 p.m.

Sunday, Nov. 27 — worst times, 4 p.m. to 8 p.m.; best times, before 11 a.m. and after 8 p.m.

This year is expected to be the third-busiest for Thanksgiving travel since AAA began tracking the metric in 2000. Travel will probably approach 98 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

Although most will travel by car, about 72,000 Marylanders will fly to their Thanksgiving destinations. That's an increase from the 69,000 last year and a decrease from the 87,000 in 2019.

Thanksgiving air travel is expected to be within 99 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

It’s a good idea to leave for the airport early. Long lines are likely at security checkpoints.

“Airport parking spaces fill up fast, so reserve a spot ahead of time and arrive early,” Ali suggested. “Anticipate long TSA lines. If possible, avoid checking a bag to allow for more flexibility if flights are delayed or you need to reschedule.”

The Transportation Security Administration thinks air travel will pass last year's totals.

TSA expects to screen 2.5 million passengers at checkpoints nationwide on Wednesday, Nov. 23 and just as many on Sunday, Nov. 27.

In comparison, TSA screened nearly 2.9 million passengers on the Sunday after Thanksgiving 2019. That set the record for TSA's largest single-day passenger volume.

TSA Administrator David Pekoske said his agency is ready for the surge, but he thinks it would be better prepared if it offered higher salaries to entice additional security officers.

“Going forward, making the TSA pay levels equal to other federal agencies is critical to our ability in 2023 to recruit, train, equip and retain a highly skilled and professional workforce on the frontlines of transportation security,” Pekoske said. “It is up to Congress to act on the President’s budget request without delay, enabling TSA to address the current pay gap, which is up to 30% compared with other federal employees.”

Around 17,000 Marylanders will take a bus, train or cruise ship this holiday weekend. Last year saw 14,000 travelers use these modes of transportation, while 2019 recorded 22,000.