O'Malley, Carson Trail in Iowa's 2016 Presidential Caucuses Final Poll

DES MOINES, IA — The final poll before the Iowa Caucuses was released Saturday and shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination while businessman and reality star Donald Trump held a slight lead over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio showing a slight increase in support.

Two Maryland politicians in the hunt for the nomination -- former Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley and former surgeon Dr. Ben Carson in the GOP contest -- fall well behind the leaders.

Clinton held a 3 percent lead over Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, for the Democratic nomination, while former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley trails at 3 percent, in The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, one of the most respected in the nation.

Carson, who at one time polled second in Iowa, has fallen to fourth in the Republican field with 10 percent support, the Register says.

O’Malley may have jumped into the race too late, said some Iowa caucus watchers. Others wonder if the spring riots in Baltimore -- where O’Malley once served as mayor and a frequent talking point in his stump speeches as a success story -- may have snuffed out O’Malley’s progress in Iowa.

Still, one former Democratic state legislator is puzzled about why O’Malley hasn’t resonated with Iowa’s liberal Democrats.

“I’m surprised he didn’t get traction here in Iowa. He’s an attractive candidate,” Daryl Beall, a former state lawmaker, told The Baltimore Sun.

Beall will caucus for Sanders, but said O’Malley has run a serious campaign, hitting neighborhoods in Des Moines as well as small towns across the state. “I don’t understand why Martin O’Malley hasn’t done better.”

For Carson, the tumult in Europe as refugees from the Mideast poured in, followed by terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, CA, may have made Iowans question the backbone of the soft-spoken doctor, the Sun says.

“In a time of terror you want George Patton, not Mister Rogers,” Jamie Johnson, an Iowa strategist said.

Turning out voters to caucus sites is always the key, strategist David Axelrod told the Register.

“Clinton’s voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before,” Axelrod said. “Bernie’s organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers — many of them young — is greater.”

• See the full final Des Moines Register 2016 Iowa Caucus Poll here.

On the GOP side, Trump continues to hold the lead with 28 percent support, followed by Cruz at 23 percent. The rest of the field shows Rubio at 15 percent, Dr. Ben Carson at 10 percent, Sen. Rand Paul at 5 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3 percent.

Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and the “not sure” category all received 2 percent support in the poll, taken Jan. 26-29.

The 2016 Iowa Caucuses are Monday, Feb. 1.

Pollsters cautioned the Republican contest remains fluid, while Democrats who have lined up behind Clinton appeared to do so convincingly.

Of Trump supporters, 71 percent said their mind is made up. For Cruz, the number drops to 61 percent. On the Democratic side, 83 percent of Clinton supporters said they are solidly behind her. For Sanders, the number drops to 69 percent.

Trump leads both with Iowans who say they’ll definitely vote and those who will probably vote. “Turnout seems not to affect him,” Selzer told the Register. “Either way, he seems on solid ground.”

Among first-time caucusgoers, Trump has a 16-point lead, but those newbies make up only 40 percent of caucus goers. Among the other 60 percent, Cruz has a 3-point lead.

That could prove significant as participating in Iowa’s caucuses means requires a relatively significant time commitment, and the weather forecast for Monday calls for some nasty weather.

Another sign of a possible cliffhanger Monday night: Although just 9 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers haven’t yet made a choice, they’re part of the 45 percent who could be persuaded to switch candidates in the final hours before Iowa beings voting at 7 p.m.

Many of the presidential contenders are camped out in Iowa this weekend, criss-crossing the state from colleges to churches, union halls to Pizza Ranch locations. Former President Bill Clinton and daughter Chelsea will be in Des Moines Monday to help Hillary Clinton seal the deal with voters, something that didn’t happen eight years ago when Barack Obama won the state.

The Register’s editorial board weighed in earlier this month with its recommendations to Iowans, namingClinton and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as its choices for the nominations.

New York Times Endorsements

Saturday The New York Times editorial staff endorsed Clinton and Ohio Sen. John Kasich. The newspaper noted it has supported Clinton’s run for president before, as well as her tenure as a senator from New York. She won praise for focus on the pay gap for women, her push for a no-fly zone in Syria, and her work with sanctions against Iran as secretary of state.

“Hillary Clinton is the right choice for the Democrats to present a vision for America that is radically different from the one that leading Republican candidates offer — a vision in which middle-class Americans have a real shot at prosperity, women’s rights are enhanced, undocumented immigrants are given a chance at legitimacy, international alliances are nurtured and the country is kept safe,” the Times said.

On the GOP side, the Times described the GOP race as brutish, and characterized frontrunners Donald Trump as uninformed and Ted Cruz as nakedly ambitious.

Of Kasich, a former senator and now governor of Ohio, the Times says: “Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, though a distinct underdog, is the only plausible choice for Republicans tired of the extremism and inexperience on display in this race. And Mr. Kasich is no moderate. As governor, he’s gone after public-sector unions, fought to limit abortion rights and opposed same-sex marriage.”

Republican Contenders: Trump Vs. Cruz

With the Iowa Caususes two days away, Donald Trump sharpened his attacks on Ted Cruz in New Hampshire Friday, calling Cruz a Canadian “anchor baby.”

Cruz, in turn, slammed Trump for his “New York values.”

Recent Iowa polls have Trump leading the GOP field heading into Monday’s caucuses, with a roughly 6-point margin over Cruz.

Another poll of Iowans released Thursday showed Trump had pulled ahead of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with a 7-point lead among likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers. (Most of those polled were questioned before Trump’s public spat with Bob Vander Plaats, who wields enormous political power in Iowa, and all of them were questioned before Trump’s decision not to attend the GOP debate, which most political commentators say was a tactical error.)

Trump enjoys greater support in New Hampshire—recent polls have him up about 19 points over Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who are nearly tied in second.

Speaking in Nashua Radisson Friday, Trump again questioned the validity of Cruz’s American citizenship.

“Ted Cruz is an anchor baby in Canada,” he said. “He can run for prime minister of Canada, no problem.”

Many legal experts say Trump is wrong about Cruz. AHarvard Law Review report found Cruz’s citizenship is valid.

“The only anchor here is the one being dragged behind the S.S. New York Values,” Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier said in a statement.

Cruz has claimed those values include a pro-choice statement Trump to “Meet the Press” in 1999.

Clinton’s Experience Against Sanders’ Call for Reform

For Democrats, the question is simple: Will Feb. 1 be the beginning of Hillary Clinton’s coronation as her party’s presidential nominee, or will Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders pull a slight upset, much as then-Sen. Barack Obama did eight years ago?

The Democratic front-runners are a study in contrasting styles, politicos say. Clinton is a pragmatist who knows she’ll have to work with a Republican-controlled House of Representatives if she wants to get anything done as president, while Sanders argues voters want to shake up Congress and Wall Street.

Des Moines Register political columnist Kathie Obradovich writes that Clinton has more to lose than Sanders does come Monday.

“If the best campaign organization that money can buy can’t hold off a Democratic socialist, she will be damaged goods,” Obradovich says.

On Wednesday, the newest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls put Clinton only 3 points in front of Sanders. The Vermont senator has a 20-point lead over Clinton in his neighboring state of New Hampshire, which votes Feb. 9, while the first poll of South Carolina gives Clinton a 64 percent to 27 percent lead over Sanders.

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, who has billed himself as the voice of a younger generation with new ideas, continues to languish in third with 3 percent support in Iowa.

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The Iowa Poll, conducted January 26-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 602 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.