Hogan Leads Democrats Again In New Poll, Compromise Valued

ANNAPOLIS, MD — There's bad news for the crowded field of Democrats trying to unseat Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan: none of them would beat him if the election were held now, according to the latest Goucher Poll. The popular GOP governor beats all challengers, with lots of Democrats still undecided, and those polled giving Hogan a better grade than Democratic leaders on every issue except the environment. Opponents hope to tie Hogan to the unpopular policies of President Donald Trump — Hogan didn't support Trump and refused to vote for him in November — and most Marylanders don't view the president as a factor in the gubernatorial race, the poll shows.

Maryland residents were asked about their opinions toward the role of government and political compromise; confidence in elected officials to handle different issues; Maryland’s current direction and economic situation; and about Hogan, President Donald Trump and the 2018 gubernatorial election. Marylander’s view of Major League Baseball was also assessed. The Goucher Poll surveyed 617 Maryland adults from April 14-19 and has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percent.

Role of Government and Political Compromise

Sixty-two percent of Marylanders think the government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people. About a third think the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. About three-quarters of Marylanders prefer political leaders who compromise in order to get things done compared to 14 percent who prefer political leaders who stick to their beliefs even if less gets done. When there is a lack of cooperation in state government, 67 percent hold both Governor Larry Hogan and the Democratic leadership in Maryland equally as responsible, while 18 percent hold the Democratic leadership and 11 percent hold Governor Hogan responsible.

Confidence in Larry Hogan or the Democratic Leadership to Handle Different Issues

Residents were asked whether they had more confidence in Hogan or the Democratic leadership in Maryland to handle a variety of issues.

Environmental issues

• Larry Hogan (34 percent)
• Democratic leadership (47 percent)

State budget and finances

• Larry Hogan (55 percent)
• Democratic leadership (28 percent)

Gun violence

• Larry Hogan (39 percent)
• Democratic leadership (40 percent)

Transportation and infrastructure

• Larry Hogan (45 percent)
• Democratic leadership (36 percent)

Economic development and job creation

• Larry Hogan (49 percent)
• Democratic leadership (35 percent)

Taxes

• Larry Hogan (47 percent)
• Democratic leadership (35 percent)

Education

• Larry Hogan (37 percent)
• Democratic leadership (44 percent)

Crime and criminal justice

• Larry Hogan (48 percent)
• Democratic leadership (32 percent)

“Echoing the bipartisan tone and legislative scope of the 2018 Maryland General Assembly session, most Marylanders say they prefer leaders who compromise and a government that does more to help meet the needs of people,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center. “While there are clear divisions on who residents are more confident in to handle different issues, most Marylanders say they hold both Governor Hogan and the Democratic leadership equally responsible when there is a lack of cooperation in state government.”

Direction of the State and Current Economic Situation

Fifty-three percent say Maryland is heading in the right direction and 28 percent say Maryland is off on the wrong track. A plurality—42 percent—of residents think that the economy in Maryland is better today than it was four years ago, 37 percent think it’s the same, and 17 percent think it is worse.

Perceptions of Governor Larry Hogan, President Donald Trump, and the 2018 Gubernatorial Election

Hogan continues to earn high marks from Marylanders. Sixty-nine percent of Marylanders approve of the job Hogan is doing as governor and 21 percent disapprove. President Donald Trump is significantly less popular with Marylanders; 25 percent approve of the job he is doing and 70 percent disapprove. Maryland residents were asked additional questions about Governor Hogan including his ideological leanings and his distance from President Trump.

• 51 percent of Marylanders think that Governor Hogan is a moderate, while 26 percent see him as a conservative and 9 percent view the Governor as a liberal.
• 47 percent of Maryland residents believe that Governor Hogan has distanced himself “about the right amount” from President Trump. Twenty-seven percent of respondents believe Governor Hogan has distanced himself “too little” from President Trump and 9 percent think he has distanced himself “too much.”

Marylanders who indicated that they were registered to vote, interested in the 2018 election, and likely to vote in the upcoming elections in November were asked whether they would vote for “Republican Larry Hogan” or vote for each one the Democratic candidates:

• Larry Hogan (44%) / Rushern Baker (31%) / Undecided (22%)
• Larry Hogan (44%) / Ben Jealous (31%) / Undecided (22%)
• Larry Hogan (45%) / Kevin Kamenetz (28%) / Undecided (23%)
• Larry Hogan (45%) / Rich Madaleno (27%) / Undecided (26%)
• Larry Hogan (46%) / Alec Ross (26%) / Undecided (26%)
• Larry Hogan (47%) / Jim Shea (27%) / Undecided (25%)
• Larry Hogan (45%) / Krish Vignarajah (25%) / Undecided (27%)

Maryland likely voters were also asked how much influence their views toward President Trump will have on their vote for governor. Thirty-six percent said that their views toward President Trump will influence their vote for governor “a lot” or “some” and 62 percent said their views toward the president will have “no” or “only a little” influence on their vote.

Comptroller Peter Franchot and Attorney General Brian Frosh

Thirty-eight percent approve of the job Peter Franchot is doing as Comptroller of Maryland, 13 percent disapprove, and 47 percent don’t know. Thirty-one percent approve of the job Brian Frosh is doing as Attorney General of Maryland, 17 percent disapprove, and 49 percent don’t know.

Major League Baseball in Maryland

About half of Marylanders say they aren’t fans of Major League Baseball. A third of Marylanders say they are fans of the Baltimore Orioles and 13 percent say they are fans of the Washington Nationals.

Complete results, including methodology and question design, can be downloaded here.

About the Goucher Poll

The Goucher Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. Directed by Dr. Mileah Kromer, the Goucher Poll conducts surveys on public policy, economic, and social issues in Maryland. The Goucher Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources.

Photo courtesy of Gov. Larry Hogan's office