MD Coronavirus: 1,700 Deaths Projected By August, 18 To Date

MARYLAND — The coronavirus pandemic could take as many as 1,700 lives in Maryland over the next four months, according to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

A statewide stay-at-home order was put in place Monday after the number of deaths from the new coronavirus in Maryland tripled over the weekend, from five Saturday to 15 on Sunday. As of Monday afternoon, the Maryland Department of Health said 1,660 confirmed cases of the coronavirus have been tallied, resulting in a total of 18 deaths. Health officials said the number of negative test results stands at 14,868, with 429 people hospitalized at some point during the outbreak.

The Seattle-based institute, affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, based its projections using the expected peak of the infection in each state and the number of hospital beds, intensive-care beds and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed.

This comes even as Maryland officials ordered schools closed on March 16, non-essential services were ordered closed March 23, and a stay-at-home order was issued March 30. Gov. Larry Hogan has not banned travel, although he said anyone who has been outside of the state should self-quarantine for 14 days.

When Hogan issued the stay-at-home order Monday he said the state faces "a deadly public health crisis. We are no longer asking or suggesting that Marylanders stay home. We are directing them to do so," Hogan said.

For the United States as a whole, the institute predicted that coronavirus infection would peak on April 14, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 50,000 short of the supply and the supply of intensive-care beds for such patients would fall shorty by nearly 15,000. Nationwide deaths on that date will top 2,300, the institute predicted, and would total more than 81,000 by Aug. 4.

The authors of the research article containing these findings wrote, “Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states.”

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In Maryland, the institute projects the infection rate to peak on May 1, when the number of beds available for coronavirus patients will fall 915 short of the 4,876 beds needed, and the number of intensive-care beds will fall 465 short of the 731 needed.

On that peak date, 47 deaths per day are expected, and 1,700 Maryland residents could die by Aug. 4, the institute said.

In making projections for the states, the institute took note of whether and when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.

“The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths,” the authors wrote.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, on Sunday warned that the novel coronavirus could infect millions of people in the United States and account for more than 100,000 deaths.

Speaking on CNN's "State of the Union," Fauci said that based on what he's seeing, the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19.

"We're going to have millions of cases," said Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noting that projections are subject to change, given that the disease's outbreak is "such a moving target."

These social distancing measures and other steps can help minimize the spread of the coronavirus:

• Stay at home as much as possible. If you must go out, maintain a 6-foot distance from others.
• Wash your hands often with soap and warm water for at least 20 seconds on both sides and between your fingers.
• Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60 percent alcohol if soap and water are not available.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
• Avoid people who are ill.
• Disinfect high-contact surfaces, such as door knobs and tables.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention recommends, if you think you have been exposed to COVID-19 and develop a fever and symptoms, such as cough or difficulty breathing, call a healthcare provider for medical advice.

The Maryland Department of Health has shared this overview of the virus and how to be safe:

What are risk factors for serious illness from COVID-19?
Older people, age 60 and above, and those with pre-existing medical conditions have a higher risk
for serious illness from COVID-19. Examples of pre-existing medical conditions include: cancer,
diabetes, heart disease or other conditions impacting the immune system's ability to fight germs.

How does COVID-19 spread?
COVID-19 is thought to be able to spread like the cold or flu through:
• coughing and sneezing, which creates respiratory droplets
• close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands
• touching an object or surface with the virus on it

What are the symptoms of COVID-19?
• Fever
• Coughing
• Shortness of breath
• In more severe cases, pneumonia (infection in the lungs)

What should I do if I think I am sick with COVID-19?
If you become sick with fever, cough or have difficulty breathing, contact your health care
provider, especially if you are over 60 years of age or have pre-existing medical conditions. If you
do not have a health care provider, contact your local health department.

Follow these steps:
• Call your health care provider, local health department or emergency room before you go
• Tell them about your symptoms, any recent travel and close contacts (such as people in
your household)
• Wear a mask, if one is available

If someone has COVID-19, what will happen to them?
The vast majority of people recover from this infection. Most people will have mild or moderate
symptoms. Most people may be advised to recover at home and isolate themselves from others.
These individuals should call their physicians or health care practitioners if their symptoms get
worse.

Some COVID-19 infections can lead to serious illness, and in some cases death. If someone has a
more serious illness from COVID-19, they may be admitted to the hospital.

Read more:

• Coronavirus In Montgomery County: What To Do If You Have Symptoms
• Teen Drinking Party At Hotel Violates Governor's Order: Police
• Playgrounds Shut Down By County Exec Due To Coronavirus
• 'Epic Failure' By Feds On Coronavirus Testing, Says Ex-Anne Arundel Executive
• Johns Hopkins Allies Put Out The Call For Respirators