Biden Has 32-Point Lead Over Trump, Hogan Still Popular: MD Poll

From Maryland Matters: By Josh Kurtz

September 25, 2020

Former vice president Joe Biden holds a 32-point lead over President Donald Trump in Maryland, a recent poll shows.

Biden was the choice of 62 percent of likely Maryland voters and Trump was named by 30 percent in a poll conducted Sept. 4-11 by OpinionWorks, an Annapolis survey research firm. The poll of 838 voters had a 3.4-point margin of error.

If those numbers hold, Biden would slightly outpace Hillary Clinton’s margin over Trump in 2016, when she took 60 percent in Maryland and Trump took just under 34 percent.

While 88 percent of Democrats and 87 percent of Republicans in Maryland said they will vote for the candidates of their own party, independents are breaking two-to-one for Biden (34 percent to 18 percent, with 45 percent unsure and the remainder saying they may not vote).

Biden led Trump 82 percent to 8 percent among Black voters and 49 percent to 40 percent among white voters.

The presidential horse race was just one of many political and policy questions OpinionWorks pollsters asked Maryland voters.

Trump’s bad poll numbers are not having any impact on Maryland’s Republican governor, Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R), who remains wildly popular. Sixty-nine percent of voters said they viewed him favorably, and only 10 percent said they viewed him unfavorably.

Such numbers would be the envy of any politician, but they may represent a minor slide for Hogan, who was registering approval ratings in the high 70s in other polls earlier this year. Of those voters in the survey who were favorable, 36 percent viewed Hogan very favorably and 33 percent had a somewhat favorable opinion of him.

The governor’s favorability was consistent across party lines: He was viewed favorably by 75 percent of Republicans, 62 percent of Independents, and 69 percent of Democrats across the state.

Even with Hogan’s high poll numbers, proposals for paid family leave and a restructuring of the tax code to require wealthy individuals to pay a larger share of their income in taxes won broad support in the poll ― across party lines ― and survey respondents also favored retaining Democratic control of the General Assembly by a wide margin.

Though legislative elections will not be held until 2022, in a hypothetical generic ballot test, 56 percent of voters said they are likely to vote for the Democratic legislative candidates in their district, compared to 27 percent who were more likely to vote for the Republicans.

The 29-point advantage for Democrats was 10 points larger than when OpinionWorks asked the question of voters in October 2017. At that time, 42 percent of voters said they were likely to vote for the Democrats in their district and 23 percent favored the Republicans, for a margin of 19 points, a result that was fairly consistent with the prior few years.

The most recent result, OpinionWorks suggested in a survey memo, represents a hardening of partisanship, with Republicans gaining 4 points and Democrats gaining 14 points in voter support. Independents have also broken heavily towards Democrats in 2020, now favoring them by 16 points in the generic ballot after the two parties were essentially tied among independents in 2017.

BLM, COVID-19

The Black Lives Matter movement is viewed favorably by almost two-thirds of voters in Maryland (63 percent), three times as many as the 21 percent who view the movement unfavorably. Almost half (49 percent) of white voters said they view the movement favorably, compared to 30 percent with an unfavorable view and 21 percent who are neutral or unsure. Among African-American voters, favorability towards BLM stood at 88 percent, compared to 6 percent unfavorable.

Almost half (47 percent) of the state’s registered voters said they know someone personally who has tested positive for the coronavirus, and another 2 percent know someone who could not get a test but may have had the virus.

More than four voters in 10 said they have experienced an economic impact from the pandemic: 16 percent said they were laid off, lost their job, or lost their primary source of income, and 25 percent said they have not lost their primary source if income but their income is reduced.

Maryland voters said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis by a margin of 63 percent disapprove to 24 percent approve. Democrats disapproved by a margin of 86 percent to 6 percent, and independents by 56 percent to 19 percent. Republicans said they approve of Trump’s handling of the crisis by a margin of 70 percent to 15 percent.

Paid family leave, tax reform

The poll also addressed two public policy issues that may come before the General Assembly in 2021.

A proposal to create paid family and medical leave in Maryland received very broad support. By a margin of 78 percent to 12 percent, voters said they supported “a proposal to create a family and medical leave insurance program that would provide workers with partial wage replacement for up to 12 weeks when they need time away from work to provide care for a new child, a seriously ill family member, or their own serious health condition.” A majority of voters (51 percent) said they strongly favor this proposal.

The proposal was popular across party lines, with 81 percent of Democrats, 76 percent of independents, and 73 percent of Republicans supporting it.

The poll also found widespread support for a proposed restructuring of the tax code.

By a margin of 69 percent to 17 percent, voters across Maryland said they believe the state should “change the law to require wealthy individuals to pay the same share of their income as middle-class residents pay.”

This issue also appears to cross party lines. Seventy-five percent of Democrats, 66 percent of independents, and 62 percent of Republicans said they would favor this revision of the tax code. Support topped 60 percent in every part of the state, including 68 percent on the traditionally conservative Eastern Shore and 61 percent in Western Maryland.

The poll question on family leave was paid for 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East, Maryland/DC Division. The question on tax policy was paid for by the Maryland Center on Economic Policy. The remainder of the poll was conducted by OpinionWorks solely for public release and was not paid for by any sponsor.

jkurtz@marylandmatters.org

For more stories from Maryland Matters, visit www.marylandmatters.org.