Jul 28, 2014

Varied Forecasts for Coming Nor'Easter

It's a grab-bag blizzard!

Varied Forecasts for Coming Nor'Easter

Winter storm Nemo may  turn into a historic blizzard throughout the tri-state area on Friday night and Saturday morning, or it may be complete dud.

Different forecast models are calling for snowfall amounts somewhere between zero and 38.3 inches.

The  Weather Channel is expecting a variety of effects, “Snow from Winter Storm Nemo works into northern New York and northern New England Thursday night as an area of rain and some freezing rain spreads into the Virginias, Maryland, Delaware, southern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey from a southern storm.”

By Friday and Friday night, “the two storms combine into a huge nor'easter east of New Jersey and southeast of Massachusetts.”

The  National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting 3 to 7 inches of snow on Friday night for Brooklyn and New York City. According to the NWS, Friday morning will bring “rain and snow, becoming all rain after 10 a.m.” They predict a high of 40, with wind blowing east at 13 to 17 mph, and gusts as high as 29 mph. The call for 100 percent chance of precipitation with “new snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.”

By Friday night, there will be rain before 9 p.m., then snow to follow with a low around 27 degrees. There will be a north wind at 21 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. There is a 100 percent chance of precipitation with “new snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches.”

On Saturday, snow is “likely with areas of blowing snow before 9 a.m., then a chance of snow between 9 a.m. and noon.” It will be partly sunny, with a high near 33 degrees. Wind will blow northwest at 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. There is a 60 percent chance of precipitation.

The  European model, or the ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting), is considered the most historically accurate by  the Weather Chanel. It predicts up to 15 inches of snow by Saturday morning — or the system could miss NYC completely.

At the high end of predictions a method called the Rapid Precision Mesoscale (RPM) forecasts a whopping 38.3 inches of snow for New York City on Friday and Saturday, according to  NBC's weather department. But now,  NBC is reportingonly 8 to 12 inches of snow.

Stick with Patch for updates. 

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