A weakening disturbance in the Ohio River Valley will approach the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas Tuesday evening with scattered showers and strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. Ahead of the showers and thunderstorms will be a warm and humid air mass as temperatures rise into the 80's.
Through Tuesday afternoon, clouds will slowly increase with showers and thunderstorms developing and moving through the region between 3 PM and 8 PM. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy downpours, frequent lightning, hail, and wind gusts over 40 mph. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 80's throughout much of the region, mid to upper 70's over Long Island and southern Connecticut for highs this afternoon.
Tuesday night through Thursday, scattered to broken cloud cover can be expected with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining a threat. While most locations will remain dry, the slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy downpours, occasional lightning, and wind gusts over 40 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60's. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70's over Long Island and lower to mid 80's throughout the rest of the region.
On Thursday, an area of low pressure which will produce significant severe thunderstorms over the central Plains today will drive through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas. This low pressure system will produce periods of rain on Thursday as the low pressure system passing just to the south of New Jersey and then exit into the coastal waters to the east of Long island by the evening. Embedded thunderstorms can be expected within the steady rainfall with very heavy downpours, occasional lightning, and strong wind gusts expected. Rainfall amounts will range from a half an inch to locally up to two inches of rain. Localized small stream and urban flooding will be a threat. Winds will back from the southwest to north at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60's for lows and lower to mid 70's for highs.
On Friday, showers will linger in the morning followed by clearing skies as high pressure takes hold over the region. Clear skies with winds from the west can be expect by the afternoon hour. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50's for lows and upper 70's to lower 80's for highs.
High pressure will be in control Saturday on through Monday morning with clear skies to scattered cloud cover. A cold front will approach by Monday afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60's for lows and lower to mid 80's for highs.
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