TUSCALOOSA, AL — Alabama could face another round of heavy rain and potentially significant flooding this weekend as forecasters monitor a developing tropical disturbance in the Gulf.
Click here to subscribe to our free daily newsletter and breaking news alerts.
AccuWeather reported Monday that a mass of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week.
Forecasters say the system's most likely path would take it north-northeast toward the central Gulf Coast, potentially bringing it near Alabama this weekend.
The next named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would be Isaias.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said warm Gulf waters are favorable for development, although increasing wind shear could limit how strong the system becomes.
AccuWeather currently puts the chance of the system becoming a hurricane at about 15%, while state officials predict a 50% chance of tropical development.
For Alabama, the more immediate concern could be rainfall rather than the storm's eventual classification.
The Alabama Emergency Management Agency said Monday that an area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Gulf, with a tropical depression possible after Wednesday.
The agency said rain chances should begin increasing across southern Alabama by Friday evening before spreading across the southern half of the state Saturday.
"Heavy and potentially flooding rainfall could occur this weekend," Alabama EMA meteorologist Jim Stefkovich said in the agency's Monday update.
That could compound flooding concerns following several days of wet weather across parts of southern Alabama.
Flood watches remained in effect Monday for Mobile and Baldwin counties and portions of southeast Alabama, while an additional 1-2 inches of rain was possible in southeastern portions of the state. Isolated totals of more than 4 inches were possible Monday, according to Alabama EMA.
The National Weather Service in Mobile said locally heavy rainfall should gradually diminish Monday before a stretch of drier weather Tuesday through Thursday. However, forecasters are increasingly concerned about another widespread heavy rain event late Friday into the weekend.
In addition to heavy rainfall, the National Weather Service said gusty winds, dangerous surf and coastal flooding could become concerns along the Alabama Gulf Coast, depending on the eventual track and strength of the disturbance.
AccuWeather said areas east of the system's center could receive 1-4 inches of rain, with localized amounts as high as 8 inches somewhere along the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
Forecasters said the system has yet to develop a well-defined circulation, meaning its eventual track, intensity and specific impacts on Alabama could change considerably over the next several days.
Sign up for free local newsletters and alerts for the
Tuscaloosa Patch
Patch.com is the nationwide leader in hyperlocal news.
Visit Patch.com to find your town today.