Breaking Down the 2022 Arizona Race for Governor

As Governor Doug Ducey’s term in the highest office in Arizona comes to an end next year, citizens will elect a new candidate as his successor. According to the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), two women familiar to many Arizonans are the current favorites to win their party primaries.

A total of 882 registered voters in Arizona were surveyed in the AZPOP poll, which was conducted last month from Sept. 7 through Sept. 12. According to the survey Kari Lake is the top Republican candidate in the 2022 race for Arizona governor, with 25% of Republicans polled saying she is their favorite candidate. Lake is a former Fox 10 anchor who resigned earlier this year after 22 years with the station. On Sept. 28, Lake was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, which could help her in the crowded Republican primary in August of next year.

“Few can take on the Fake News Media like Kari. She is strong on crime, will protect our Border, Second Amendment, Military, and Vets, and will fight to restore Election Integrity,” Trump wrote in his endorsement statement.

Lake was the only Republican candidate in the poll to receive a double digit percentage of votes. The other Republican candidates consist of Matt Salmon, Kimberly Yee, Steve Gaynor, Jorge Rivas and Karrin Taylor Robson.

According to the poll, Arizona Secretary of State, Katie Hobbs, is the leading Democratic candidate in the governor primary and received 40% of votes for the Democratic party. Hobbs has been serving as Arizona Secretary of State since 2018. Other trailing candidates in the Democratic party include Marco Lopez, who received 10% of votes and Aaron Lieberman, who received 8% of votes in the survey.

The front-runners Hobbs and Lake both currently possess high name recognition, which can be beneficial for both candidates. A Foundation Professor of Political Science at Arizona State University, Kim Fridkin, said both candidates have significant weaknesses which they will have to overcome when facing voters next November.

“Another negative for Kari Lake, if she wins the general election, is her lack of elective experience. Finally, Lake has been using quite hyperbolic language on the campaign trail which may help her in the nomination campaign, but may be more problematic in the general election. Katie Hobbs has weaknesses as well – her campaign style is more low-key, especially compared to Lake, and that may hurt her on the campaign trail,” Fridkin said.

Lots of turmoil and uncertainty was raised from the 2020 presidential election, and could either serve as an inspiration to citizens or create voter apathy. Fabian Neuner, an Assistant Professor at the ASU School of Politics and Global Studies, said voter turnout could determine next year's winner.

“Arizona is definitely a purple state but it’s important to note that many Republicans won down-ballot in Maricopa county in 2020 so it will be a tight race and here a lot will depend on voter turnout… One question is whether the stolen election narrative will disengage some voters who feel that there is no point in voting if they perceive elections to be rigged against them. Although we haven't seen much evidence of such dynamics yet, it is something to look out for,” Neuner said.

Overall, the 2022 race for governor of Arizona to elect Doug Ducey’s successor is going to be close. Analysts say both Hobbs and Lake will have to reach out beyond their base in order to win.

Reporter: Campbell Wilmot