Extreme Heat, Gusty Winds Raise Wildfire Concerns Around Tucson

TUCSON, AZ — Tucson is in for a scorching start to the week, with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Tuesday before a gradual cooldown arrives.

Monday is expected to be the hottest day, with forecasters predicting a high of 102 degrees at Tucson International Airport. That falls just three degrees short of the daily record of 105, set in 1996.

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A strong ridge of high pressure parked over Arizona is driving the heat, and it won't begin shifting east until Tuesday, when temperatures should start a slow retreat toward more seasonal levels.

Relief will be modest and incremental. Highs are expected to drop several degrees by midweek, though forecasters say temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week.

Monday starts with more than just heat. Gusty easterly winds are expected through mid-morning as high pressure builds down the Front Range of the Rockies, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible in areas most prone to easterly flow.

Winds should taper off by afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens, according to forecasters.

Despite the heat, there is enough moisture aloft to fuel cloud buildups from Tucson southward and eastward through Wednesday.

Forecasters put the chance of virga or dry thunderstorms at around 10 percent this afternoon, rising slightly to 10 to 20 percent Tuesday, mainly over higher terrain and the Sky Islands.

Dry thunderstorms produce lightning without meaningful rainfall, making them a fire ignition concern rather than a source of relief, officials said.

With humidity values expected to bottom out between 6 and 14 percent in the valleys each afternoon, fire weather conditions will stay dangerous through the week.

Elevated southwest to west winds return Thursday and Friday, and the combination of low humidity, dry thunderstorm chances, and gusty outflow winds will keep fire risk highest south and east of Tucson through Wednesday.