Flood Watch Issued As Heavy Rain Targets Tucson Area

TUCSON, AZ — Southeast Arizona could see a soaking Monday as widespread showers and thunderstorms threaten to bring heavy rainfall and flash flooding to parts of the region.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch from noon Monday through midnight Monday night for Graham, Greenlee, Cochise and Santa Cruz counties, with the greatest flood threat expected east and south of Tucson.

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According to the weather service's Monday morning forecast discussion, abundant monsoon moisture combined with an upper-level disturbance moving in from New Mexico will fuel an active round of storms across Southeast Arizona.

"These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall," forecasters said, adding that the unsettled pattern could continue into Tuesday with another chance for heavy rain. In the forecast discussion, meteorologists said Southeast Arizona is "poised for an active start to the work week."

Some storms could produce 1 to 3 inches of rain in localized areas. That's especially concerning because soils across much of the region remain saturated after repeated rounds of storms over the past week. With little capacity to absorb additional rainfall, runoff could increase quickly, raising the risk of flash flooding.

Cochise and Santa Cruz counties are expected to have the greatest potential for heavy rainfall Monday, though Graham and Greenlee counties remain under the Flood Watch as well. During the heaviest downpours, visibility could drop to between 3 and 5 miles.

Heavy rain won't be the only concern.

Storms developing across the Gila River Valley and San Simon Valley could also produce outflow wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph, along with areas of blowing dust. Aviation forecasters also warned of erratic wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots in those valleys.

Looking ahead, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Tuesday, especially across the eastern half of Southeast Arizona, though forecasters say confidence is lower than it is for Monday's forecast.

The Flood Watch remains in effect from noon through midnight Monday for Graham, Greenlee, Cochise and Santa Cruz counties.