Strong Storms Target Tucson Before 110-Degree Heat Returns

TUCSON, AZ — Southern Arizona faces a one-two punch this week: the strongest monsoon storms are expected Monday, followed by a surge of dangerous heat that could push Tucson close to 110 degrees by Friday.

The National Weather Service said thunderstorms are expected to develop between noon and 2 p.m. Monday, first over the mountains before drifting west and northwest through the afternoon and evening.

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While Monday started with mostly clear skies, forecasters said plenty of moisture is already in place. High pressure centered over New Mexico and West Texas is expected to draw additional moisture north from the Gulf of California, creating favorable conditions for strong thunderstorms along the Arizona-Mexico border and near the Arizona-New Mexico line.

That's where the greatest threat for severe weather is expected.

Forecasters say some storms near the international border could become strong and long-lived, bringing damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flash flooding. Southeast Arizona could also see rotating thunderstorms, prompting the Storm Prediction Center to place much of the region under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Monday.

Tucson and central Pima County are expected to remain on the northern edge of the most active weather, meaning storm coverage should be more isolated than in communities farther south and east. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours, roughly between 9 p.m. and 4 a.m. Tuesday.

Douglas and Nogales have the highest chance of seeing direct impacts, with any stronger storm capable of producing wind gusts exceeding 40 knots, or about 46 mph.

The unsettled pattern is expected to continue Tuesday and Wednesday, with the best chances for afternoon and evening storms again focused near the international border and the Arizona-New Mexico line. Forecasters also say blowing dust could reduce visibility along Interstate 10 in Cochise County during the afternoon and evening Tuesday.

Once the storms begin to taper later this week, the heat will quickly take center stage.

Temperatures are forecast to run 2 to 6 degrees above average through Wednesday before climbing to 7 to 12 degrees above normal heading into the weekend. Tucson could approach the 110-degree mark by Friday, which currently appears to be the hottest day of the stretch.

Forecasters also expect Major to Extreme HeatRisk levels by the end of the week, increasing the likelihood that heat advisories or warnings will be issued as dangerous conditions return across Southern Arizona.