Monsoon Storms To Drench Tucson Area As Flooding Risk Rises

TUCSON, AZ — Monsoon storms are expected to ramp up across the Tucson area Monday afternoon and evening, bringing the threat of heavy downpours, gusty winds and localized flooding.

The National Weather Service says the most active weather is expected along a corridor from Douglas to Tucson, where storms could dump more than an inch of rain in just a few hours.

Strong thunderstorm outflow winds gusting up to 45 mph are also possible, with blowing dust a concern across parts of southeastern Pinal County and the northern Tohono O'odham Nation.

Forecasters say the atmosphere is loaded with moisture, creating favorable conditions for slow-moving storms capable of producing heavy rainfall over the same locations. There is a 30% to 50% chance that areas between Douglas and the Tucson metro will receive more than an inch of rain within a three-hour period Monday afternoon or evening.

While flooding is the primary concern, wind will also be a hazard. Although widespread damaging outflow winds appear less likely than in recent days, thunderstorms could still produce gusts of 40 to 45 mph.

The weather service says there's a 70% to 90% chance of storm wind gusts exceeding 35 mph, with blowing dust possible northwest of Tucson.

Monday's storms are expected to be just the beginning.

Forecasters say daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the week as the monsoon pattern remains in place across southeastern Arizona. Exactly where storms develop will vary from day to day, but residents should expect repeated opportunities for heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds.

High temperatures are forecast to remain near or slightly below normal through midweek, with additional cooling possible by the end of the workweek if cloud cover and storm activity become more widespread.

Rainfall totals could reach 1 to 1.5 inches beneath the strongest thunderstorms, increasing the risk of localized flash flooding, especially in low-lying and normally flood-prone areas.

The Weather Service is already watching Tuesday for another round of storms developing over the mountains and Mogollon Rim before drifting west and southwest toward Tucson and surrounding communities.