Tucson Monsoon 2018 Outlook: Triple Digit Temps Start Week

TUCSON, AZ — After more than 100 days without rain, the monsoon could arrive in Tucson on cue later this week, but hot, dry weather and triple-digit temperatures will continue for several more days. The monsoon — the seasonal shift in winds that brings rain and thunderstorms to Arizona — begins around June 15 and lasts through the end of September.

The National Weather Service puts rain chances at 20 percent Wednesday night and Thursday, with chances increasing to 30 percent overnight. By Friday, rain chances are 40 percent. Until then, it’s going to be miserable, with temperatures of 105 or hotter forecast through Wednesday.

Storms have already started to fire over the Sierra Madre, the mountain range on the western side of the Mexican plateau, a signal that the monsoon pattern is developing, according to meteorologists.

Long-term forecast models are trending toward a wetter-than-normal monsoon season this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

But “wet” is relative term, according to Michael Crimmins, a University of Arizona climatologist. After such a prolonged dry spell, the beginning of the monsoon season could be marked by very little rain, Crimmins told the Arizona Daily Star.

He thinks the heaviest rains could arrive later in the season when tropical weather systems feed off warmer September ocean temperatures

“It’s just a heads-up there could be more activity than last year in August and September,” Crimmins said.

The Tucson Fire Department is training o be ready for the pounding rain, strong winds and flooded roads that are typical during monsoon season. Every year, the department rescues dozens of people who are caught in floods, Tucson Fire Capt. Andy Skaggs told television station KGUN.

The training includes trial runs of disaster response, where truck operators maneuver through the hazards they can expect to encounter and stage the operation. Where they set up is crucial.

“If we park too close to the water, it might be an acceptable level when we get there, but as the scene progresses, the water level rises, and the truck becomes a victim of that water as well,” Skaggs told the television station.

Firefighters also practice the different ways they might respond, a decision they have to make in the field based on the situation.

Here’s a look at the weather for the week ahead:

Sunday: Sunny and hot, high near 105; overnight low around 69.

Monday: Sunny and hot, high near 105; overnight low around 71.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and hot, high near 105; overnight low around 74.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 104; 10 percent chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms; rain chances increase to 20 percent overnight, with a low around 75.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high near 102; 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing to 30 percent mainly before midnight; overnight low around 72.

Friday: Partly sunny with a high near 96; 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, continuing overnight; overnight low around 69.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 93; 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Photo by Preston James Garbe / Shutterstock