El Niño Summer Forecast: How Hot And Stormy Will It Be In CA?

Developing El Niño conditions could make it a hot summer in California, according to a new forecast.

The private weather company AccuWeather said the developing climate pattern is expected to bring building heat, rounds of severe weather, and shifting regional patterns across the United States.

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Driven by warming ocean waters in the Pacific, the El Niño is likely to strengthen through the summer, influencing temperatures, storm tracks and hurricane activity, AccuWeather said.

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The worst of the heat linked to El Niño are expected in parts of California and several other states, including Oregon and Idaho. Also, drought conditions are anticipated to extend across the Northwest and Northern California, according to AccuWeather.

Some forecasters predict El Niño could evolve into a rare "Super El Niño" later this year and early 2027, raising the risk of strong storms.

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“A strong to super El Niño can bring big storms to the West Coast and a strong southern storm track, rich with moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic to produce powerful East Coast storms," said AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok.

If you’re traveling this summer, here’s what to expect in the rest of the country:

In the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, including parts of New York and Pennsylvania, the summer is expected to trend warmer than average overall, with periodic stretches of intense heat. Thunderstorms could bring localized flooding, but longer dry spells are also possible as storm tracks shift.

Across the South and Southeast, frequent thunderstorms and above-average rainfall are expected at times, especially as moisture increases later in the season. However, heat and humidity will still build between storm systems.

The Midwest and Ohio Valley could see a volatile mix of heat and severe weather, including an increased risk of damaging storms during peak summer months as atmospheric patterns become more active.

In the West, especially the Southwest, hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate, raising concerns about drought and wildfire risk as the summer progresses.

The emerging El Niño may also influence the Atlantic hurricane season, which is expected to be near or slightly below average overall due to wind patterns that can disrupt storm formation.

Still, forecasters caution that even a quieter season can produce dangerous storms, and that impacts can vary widely by region.

Globally, scientists say El Niño conditions are likely to develop between late spring and summer, increasing the chances of extreme weather, including heavier rainfall in parts of North America and higher overall temperatures.

AccuWeather meteorologists say the evolving pattern will become more influential as summer progresses, meaning conditions later in the season could look markedly different from early summer.