SAN DIEGO, CA — New climate models show a "Super El Niño" weather pattern brewing in the Pacific Ocean that is highly likely to deliver one of the worst El Nino events on record arriving early as June.
According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, there is an 82 percent chance El Niño will show up this summer, and a 37 percent chance of a "strong" event. In addition, there is now a 96 percent chance that El Niño will be active in the winter. A month ago, the weather service predicted the likelihood of an El Niño developing in the summer was just 61 percent.
RELATED: Potential ‘Super El Niño’ Coming Faster Than Expected: What It Means For CA
An historically strong “super El Niño” can disrupt weather patterns worldwide, often bringing heavier rains and flooding to some regions such as Southern California while worsening drought and heat in others. Meteorologists say a major event in 2026 could contribute to record global temperatures, alter hurricane activity, fuel wildfires, and strain food and water supplies in vulnerable areas.
During a briefing this month, climate scientist Zachary Labe told The Los Angeles Times, "This is really indicating that we are headed for potentially a very rare and unusual El Niño event this year."
Labe said human-caused climate change is already driving global temperatures higher, but "what an El Niño can do is it can temporarily boost global temperatures."
Its impact on storms and precipitation in Southern California in recent decades has been erratic. A powerful El Niño in 1998 caused 17 deaths and destroyed 27 homes along the coast, The Times reported. However, a stromg El Niño a decade ago saw below-average rainfall to California.
El Niño, known for warming of oceans, is part of a natural cycle emerges approximately every 2 to 7 years. Forecasters have predicted this year's Super El Niño event could possibly be the strongest on record.
"While confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37 percent chance," NWS forecasters said.
"The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026. Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely," they added.
RELATED: Meteorologists Sound Alarm On 'Worst El Nino In 140 Years'
Recent model projections show temperatures in the Pacific Ocean temperatures will be 3.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the average by November, which forecaster say will have a global impact, especially in coastal areas.
According to Accuweather, when Pacific Ocean water near the equator is at least 0.9 of a degree Fahrenheit (0.5 degree Celsius) above long-term averages, El Niño is declared. Water temperatures must be at least 3.6 F (2 Celsius) above normal to be declared a Super El Nino, which has only been recorded five times since 1950.
RELATED: 'Godzilla El Niño' Could Unleash Fury On California As Early As Summer
If the models are correct, an El Niño event in California's 2026-2027 winter would surpass the previous super El Niño's recorded in 1997-98 and 2015-2016 with surface temperatures of 2.4, and 2.6 degrees Celsius above average, respectively.
The NOAA's Niño index also tracks ocean temperature changes linked to El Niño.
The development of a potential El Niño comes as the Pacific Ocean has already been warming, with temperatures near the equator about 7 degrees Celsius above normal.
"An El Niño is not a storm. It does not affect you directly. It is a cycle that contributes, like many other factors, to produce weather changes and sometimes extremes," AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok explained.
"While some impacts may emerge later this year, the more significant global weather effects are likely early next year," he said.
More California News:
Sign up for free local newsletters and alerts for the
Across California Patch
Patch.com is the nationwide leader in hyperlocal news.
Visit Patch.com to find your town today.