California's ski season is less than a month away, and the first significant signs of winter have arrived in the Sierra Nevada as resorts prepare to open amid forecasts for a potentially historic El Niño.
Mammoth Mountain received fresh snow this week, along with several Lake Tahoe resorts and even Big Bear got an icy dusting in SoCal. This week's storms brought at much as 4 to 6 inches to parts of the Eastern Sierra. Several mountains have already begun snowmaking operations.
The early snowfall comes as California's major ski resorts prepare for a 2026-27 season that could bring above-average precipitation, although forecasters caution that even an exceptionally strong El Niño for doesn't guarantee a snowy winter.
In the meantime, resorts are investing millions of dollars in new lifts, snowmaking equipment and avalanche safety systems following last year's deadly winter.
Mammoth Mountain plans to be the first major California resort to welcome skiers and snowboarders this season, with a projected opening date of Nov. 13.
Several Lake Tahoe mountains have also announced their projected opening dates, although all are dependent on weather and snow conditions.
The announced dates are:
Big Bear Mountain Resort hasn't yet announced when it expects to open. Historically, it often opens in late November or early December.
It's among several resorts that haven't yet announced a projected opening date:
For resorts planning to open in November, additional snowfall and sufficiently cold temperatures for snowmaking will be critical in determining how much terrain is available during the first weeks.
California could be headed for an unusually wet winter as an exceptionally strong El Niño develops in the Pacific Ocean.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center has projected a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño, according to its most recent analysis.
Forecasters predict all of California will likely see a wetter-than-average winter.
The weather pattern typically shifts Pacific storm tracks southward, raising the possibility of heavier precipitation across California and the Southwest.
Tahoe sits closer to the northern edge of the storm track during El Niño winters, meaning some storms may miss the region, while Mammoth is more favorably situated, OpenSnow forecaster Bryan Allegretto told SFGATE.
But a strong El Niño doesn't automatically translate into exceptional snowfall.
Of the four strong El Niño winters since 1970, only two produced above-average snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, Allegretto told KQED.
He pointed to the winter of 1982-83, which delivered roughly 170% of average snowfall, compared with the disappointing 2015-16 season.
Allegretto told KQED he was cautiously optimistic about the coming winter, with January and February potentially delivering the strongest snowfall.
Temperature remains another major uncertainty.
An unusually warm winter could bring substantial rain to lower elevations, even as higher peaks receive heavy snow.
"Just because we have the very strong El Niño in place, it does not guarantee any outcome," Daniel McEvoy, a climatologist at the Desert Research Institute's Western Regional Climate Center, told SFGATE.
Atmospheric rivers, which can deliver enormous amounts of precipitation over relatively short periods, will also play a major role in determining whether the Sierra experiences an exceptional winter, forecasters said.
NOAA's latest forecast estimates that the Tahoe area is likely to see above-average temperatures. Farther south, there's equal chances of unusually warm or unusually cold temperatures.
Big Bear Mountain Resort, which operates Snow Valley, Snow Summit and Bear Mountain in Southern California, recently shared an outlook for the season:
"One of the most important factors for both natural snowfall and snowmaking is temperature. Moisture is great, but the temperatures also have to drop enough for that moisture to turn into snow in the mountains," the company announced in a blog about El Niño conditions. "Those cold temperatures typically start to arrive around mid-November, and once they do, the combination of storms and cold air can produce significant snowfall at Snow Valley, Snow Summit, and Bear Mountain."
Mammoth Resorts has invested nearly $13.5 million in improvements ahead of the season, with a significant focus on avalanche safety.
Mammoth was one of several resorts in California that saw fatal avalanche incidents last year.
Mammoth is installing 15 remotely operated avalanche-control towers and another at nearby June Mountain.
The equipment will allow ski patrol teams to conduct avalanche mitigation operations remotely during severe storms, reducing the need for workers to enter hazardous terrain, according to the company.
Five new snowcats will also join grooming operations across Mammoth Mountain, June Mountain and Tamarack Cross Country Ski Center.
Mammoth will also host the Toyota U.S. Alpine Championships from March 31 through April 7, marking the national competition's return to the mountain for the first time since 2005.
June Mountain is expanding snowmaking along its Canyon Ski Back Trail to improve conditions on the route back to the parking area.
June will also offer free season passes to children 12 and younger, providing unlimited access throughout the season.
Some of the most significant changes at Tahoe resorts this winter involve new lift infrastructure, avalanche mitigation technology and expanded options for beginners.
At Palisades Tahoe, new remotely operated avalanche-control equipment is being installed across both the Palisades and Alpine areas.
The resort is adding six Gazex and Gazflex exploders at Palisades, five Wyssen avalanche towers at Alpine and a new cable-based avalanche-control system in The Funnel.
Palisades is also expanding snowmaking along Mountain Run to improve early-season access between the upper mountain and the base area.
For beginners, the resort is introducing a $799 Beginner Progression Pass that includes three group lessons, lift tickets, rentals and goggles. Skiers who complete all three lessons will receive a complimentary season pass for the remainder of winter.
At Sugar Bowl, one of the biggest additions is a new eight-passenger Village Gondola replacing the older four-passenger cabins.
Sugar Bowl is also redesigning its beginner terrain, adding snowmaking equipment and introducing technology capable of producing snow for its tubing park even when temperatures are above freezing.
Homewood Mountain Resort is also planning a new eight-passenger gondola to replace the Madden Chair, along with snowmaking improvements and a new beginner learning area. The resort has not announced a firm opening date for the gondola.
At Northstar California Resort, families will find a new Fun Forest between Big Easy and The Ritz-Carlton, offering younger skiers an introduction to tree skiing.
Northstar is also introducing full-day ski and snowboard lessons taught by Mandarin-speaking instructors on select Saturdays.
Mt. Rose has invested nearly $2 million in improvements, including snowmaking upgrades, a new grooming machine and changes to its Wildslide tubing area.
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