A series of storms is expected to bring rain, gusty winds and dangerously large waves to the Bay Area beginning Friday, with some waves potentially reaching 50 feet along the coast, according to the National Weather Service.
The most dangerous conditions are expected Friday night through early Sunday, when breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet are forecast along the Pacific coastline. At particularly exposed locations, including Mavericks near Half Moon Bay, waves could occasionally reach 40 to 50 feet, the weather services said.
National Weather Service meteorologist Rachel Kennedy told Patch on Thursday that the conditions could be life-threatening, even for people who don't plan to enter the water.
"We really want to stress that this is not a weekend for you to go to the beach," Kennedy said. "We understand wanting to see the waves, but it is incredibly dangerous."
A beach hazards statement is already in effect along Pacific Coast beaches through 6 p.m. on Friday, with breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet and an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
At 6 p.m. on Friday, a high surf warning will take effect and remain in place until 4 a.m. Sunday.
Kennedy emphasized that the largest waves will not occur everywhere along the coastline.
"The 40 to 50 foot waves are going to be more localized areas that typically do see the higher waves in general," she said. "But we are expecting those dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet everywhere along our coastline."
The National Weather Service is urging people to stay off beaches, jetties, piers and rocks, warning that powerful waves can sweep people into the ocean without warning.
"If you are on the beach, you run the risk of basically being caught by one of those large waves and then swept out to sea, which both endangers you and any rescuers who are sent to look for you," Kennedy said.
A coastal flood advisory is also expected Saturday as powerful waves push water farther inland.
"The large breaking waves will run further up the beaches and may crash over seawalls," Kennedy said, adding that the conditions could flood nearby low-lying coastal infrastructure.
The dangerous surf will coincide with the arrival of the first of several rounds of rain expected across the region.
On Thursday, the City of Santa Rosa declared a local emergency to prepare for possible flooding, landslides, fallen trees, and other impacts from El Niño, according to city officials. City crews are clearing drainage systems, removing hazardous trees, and preparing rescue teams, while officials urge residents to check emergency supplies, plan for evacuations, and avoid flooded roads, according to city officials.
Kennedy warned rain would begin early Friday morning and continue through Friday into early Saturday.
Most of the Bay Area is expected to receive between half an inch and an inch of rain during the first storm.
Another system is forecast to arrive Sunday and continue into early Tuesday, bringing an additional half-inch to 1.5 inches of rain across the region.
Despite the wet forecast, Kennedy said widespread flooding is not anticipated.
"This is largely considered to be beneficial rain with no real flooding expected," she said.
The first storm could also produce localized wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph Friday morning through Friday evening as a cold front moves through the area.
Winds are expected to diminish after the front passes.
Wet roads could create slick driving conditions and increase stopping distances.
The National Weather Service recommends slowing down, allowing extra following distance, turning on headlights when using windshield wipers and avoiding cruise control on wet roads.
The unsettled weather arrives amid a strengthening El Niño, a climate pattern associated with unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters that can shift storm tracks and increase the likelihood of wetter conditions in parts of California.
The World Meteorological Organization said in September that El Niño was expected to intensify into a very strong event before peaking near the end of 2026, with potential impacts extending into 2027.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's winter outlook also favors wetter-than-average conditions across Southern California and much of the Southwest, although precipitation predictions for Northern California remain less certain.
The potential for severe winter weather prompted Gov. Gavin Newsom to declare a state of emergency in September, allowing state agencies to accelerate storm preparations, including acquiring flood-control equipment and preparing emergency response resources.
The declaration also directed state agencies to prepare for possible flooding, landslides, power outages and coastal damage during the El Niño season.
However, Kennedy said the storms approaching the Bay Area this weekend are not expected to produce widespread flooding.
She said another storm could arrive during the middle or latter part of next week, with additional storm potential extending into the longer-range forecast.
"The active period looks to continue kind of mid to late week with potential for another storm," Kennedy said.
Residents can monitor updated forecasts, warnings and coastal conditions through the National Weather Service Bay Area office.
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