NorCal Population Bleeds Amid Pandemic, SoCal Holds Steady

By Madison Hirneisen | The Center Square, The Center Square California

May 26, 2022

(The Center Square) – City-level population data from the U.S. Census shows Bay-area cities lost a significant number of people while those along southern California's beachlines held largely firm.

"Multiple California cities remain among the top in the nation despite experiencing population losses from July 2020 to July 2021," according to new population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau Thursday.

With over 3.8 million, Los Angeles remains the second most populous city in the nation despite seeing a -1.04% change in population between July 2020 and July 2021 – equivalent to a loss of 40,537 people.

Los Angeles saw a smaller population loss than New York City, which lost over 305,400 people in a population of almost 8.5 million. Chicago, which has a population of about 2.7 million, also saw greater losses than Los Angeles, with a population shift of around 45,000 between July 2020 and July 2021.

San Diego and San Jose also remain among the 15 most populous cities in the nation, ranking eighth and 10th, respectively. San Diego’s population shifted -0.27% between July 2020 and July 2021, equivalent to the loss of nearly 3,800 residents.

The population loss was much starker in San Jose, where the population declined by over 27,000 – a loss of about 2.71% between July 2020 and July 2021. The population in the city is now officially under one million people. The Census Bureau estimates that, as of July 1, 2021, the city’s population is roughly 983,500. Comparatively, the population was estimated to be over 1 million as of April 1, 2020.

In addition to San Jose, the city of San Francisco saw a -6.3% population change between July 2020 and July 2021, equivalent to the loss of over 54,800 people.

Patrick Heuveline, association director of the California Center for Population Research at UCLA, told The Center Square that a contributing factor in the population losses witnessed in San Jose and San Francisco could be the rise of remote work.

“I think a general trend that probably applies to San Francisco and San Jose is that there is little sign that remote/hybrid work will completely cease soon,” Heuveline said in an email. “Under these conditions, expensive real estate near city centers, which may reduce commute time or allow use of alternatives to commuting with private cars, loses some of its appeal.”

Heuveline also noted that several other cities, including New York City and Chicago, experienced population losses between July 2021 to July 2022, saying the data “really doesn’t suggest that there’s an exodus out of Californian cities.” Instead, he said factors such as the decline of “natural increase” – births minus deaths – and a decline in international migration are contributing to population shifts in California.

“Outmigration also seems to have increased, which of course fits the Cal-exodus narrative, but I think it’s important to appreciate that background changes in natural increase and international migration, that have traditionally more than compensated out-migration from the State, no longer make a significant contribution to population change in California,” Heuveline said.

Though there were no California cities that ranked within the top 15 for numeric growth between July 2020 and July 2021, some areas of the state did see slight population increases.

Bakersfield saw an increase of 4,200 residents between July 2020 and July 2021, which boosted the population to over 407,000. In April 2020, Census Bureau data estimated that the population was around 402,900.

The latest data also revealed that California had the largest number of housing units as of July 1, 2021, with an estimated 14.5 million. Los Angeles County was also among the top five counties for numeric housing gains between July 2020 and July 2021, adding around 22,900 units.

With a population of over 39 million, however, California still grapples with a severe housing shortage. "To satisfy housing needs, California needs to build 3.5 million homes by 2025," a 2016 report from McKinsey & Company estimated.

The focus of the work of The Center Square California is state and local-level government and economic reporting that approaches stories with a taxpayer sensibility.