Super El Niño Could Spell Wildfire Danger For RivCo This Summer

RIVERSIDE, CA — Scientists have proclaimed El Niño is coming back, and this time, it's returning with a vengeance. The seasonal weather anomaly is being dubbed Super El Niño, and in some cases, Godzilla El Niño, which could trigger weather-related disasters and monstrous heatwaves during the 2026-2027 weather season beginning later this summer.

Over the past two decades, the name El Niño has become synonymous with extreme weather. El Niño occurs when there is a change in the Pacific Ocean's typical pattern of water movement and air flow, which happens about every two to seven years.

One of the leading weather forecast models has recently predicted there's an 62 percent chance a strong El Niño could develop in the summer. Some models predict the chances of a moderate El Niño occurring in the late summer or fall are about 98 percent likely.

Forecasters have been surprised how quickly the weather models have changed within just a few weeks.

Shang-Ping Xie, a climate science professor at University of California at San Diego, and climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, has tracked and documented El Niño and La Niña for years. About a month ago, he noted that forecast models showed several possible outcomes which have since changed, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

There is a larger consensus that a moderate to strong El Niño will develop by the end of the summer

Southern California is already getting a taste of unusually hot weather, which could break records between Tuesday and Friday, forecasters said.

"This is one of the first heat waves of the year, with temperatures rising above the seasonal average," the NWS said in a statement.

"Most days this week have the potential for daily temperature records to be broken or tied, with the potential for monthly temperature records to be broken or tied Wednesday through Friday,'' forecasters said.

El Niño Summer And Fire Danger

The NWS has not issued any fire weather alerts yet, but Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Department says it is continuously monitoring weather patterns and seasonal outlooks. In addition, while forecasts related to El Niño or other climate patterns can influence weather conditions, their approach remains the same each year: they prepare for the potential of extreme heat and elevated fire weather, said April Newman, a spokesperson for Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Department.

"The department maintains year-round readiness for wildfire response. Our staffing, equipment, and aircraft resources are strategically positioned throughout Riverside County and adjusted seasonally based on predicted conditions and historical activity. We also work closely with regional, state, and federal partners to ensure resources can be shared when large incidents occur," said Newman.

NWS data shows high temperatures like the 99 degrees forecasted this week in east and southwest Riverside County usually coincide with wildfires. Southern California's current heat wave is abnormally high for this time of the year, according to data from the NWS. By comparison, during the same time last year, the area highs peaked in the upper 50s to low 60s, according to temperature charts.

"In terms of wildfire risk, Riverside County experiences varying levels of fire activity each year depending on weather, fuel conditions, and ignition sources. Generally, areas with dense vegetation, wildland urban interface communities, and regions that experience high winds and prolonged heat are more vulnerable to wildfire," said Newman.

While fire danger is a year-round threat, especially in the summer and late fall, fire officials say residents can help reduce wildfire danger by taking the following steps:

• Create and maintain 100 feet of defensible space around homes by clearing dry vegetation and debris.
• Ensure roofs and gutters are free of leaves and pine needles.
  Use fire-resistant landscaping and building materials whenever possible.
• Prepare a family evacuation plan and stay aware of local emergency alerts.
• Be mindful of activities that could spark a fire, especially during periods of hot, dry, or windy weather

City News Service contributed to this report.