Want to know the future of online universities? Look to the past

Want to know the future of online universities? Look to the past

By

Ali Hangan

When I was honorably discharged from the ARMY in 1992, I entered community college for a year before transferring to a 4-year college. My dad bought me my first laptop, which remained unused upon my desk for nearly a year. Today, like most people, I use my computer everyday as tool for managing my daily life.

For the past couple of months, some disappointing data has emerged about the 7 percent completion rates of online courses. The pundits of online learning have pointed to the data as evidence that online courses are ineffective. The loudest voices have come from classroom instructors who argue, “online learning cannot replace classroom teaching” and “students learn best in a classroom setting.”

Conversely, proponents of online courses have put a positive spin on the data and say the technology will get better and systems to make the courses more user friendly will improve. The biggest supporters of online are industries that are connected to the eEconomy and education visionaries that recognize online course’s potential to broaden access to instruction and at cheaper cost.

But for making predictions about the future of online courses, opinions have no place. The best guide we have to predict the future of online courses is in our own history. Let’s look at 3 examples:

In 1901, Wilbur Wright once said famously that, “Man will not fly for 50 years."

The Wright brothers did not invent the idea of the airplane, but they refined the technology. Some of the biggest critics came from Europe. The Parris Herald publicly critizized the Wright Brother’s credibility in a headline Fliers or Liars. It was not until nearly a year later, which the Wright Brothers won credibility throughout the world recognized as the inventors of the modern Airplane.

 Lee De forest was a prolific developer of wireless communication. He developed the vacuum tube as a key component in the radio, television and early computers. Early on he began to sell stock in his company Radio Telephone Company and came under legal scrutiny from the Government. The district attorney stated, "Lee Deforest has said in many newspapers and over his signature that it would be possible to transmit the human voice across the Atlantic before many years. Based on these absurd and deliberately misleading statements, the misguided public has been persuaded to purchase stock in his company."

 In 1977, Ken Olson the founder of Digital Equipment Corp (DEC) was quoted as saying, "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in his or her home." That very year Steve Jobs and Allen Wosnicack invented the Apple 1 and later the Apple II. Also, that same year Commodore introduced the PET and Radio Shack begin selling the TSR-80.

 Opinion is not what should be guiding how we predict the effectiveness of online courses. If history is any guide, online courses are here to stay, will improve overtime and we will adapt our institutions and lives around the new technology. Current data from online magazine Campus Technology published that students taking online courses have increased by 96 percent over the last 5 years suggesting we are adapting to online classes faster than any opinion we may have about the future of online classes.

Ali Hangan is a Desert Storm Veteran and currently a High School economics teacher in Pomona, California. Mr. Hengan welcomes feedback. He can be reached at alihangan@gmail.com for comments.