Congressional Races 2018: Dems Get Their Blue Wave

LOS ANGELES, CA — That midterm battle for control of Congress? It's on.

Democrats across the nation looked to California to put a number of traditionally Republican House seats in play with victories in Tuesday's "jungle primary," and Democratic candidates in seven competitive districts delivered, though by razor-thin margins. Democratic candidates managed to come in first or second in all seven congressional districts held by Republican incumbents that the Democrats hope to flip. It looks as though California will send a blue wave across the nation to help Democrats get the 23 seats they need to flip the house.

Democrats fielded dozens of candidates in a handful of races but failed to coalesce around any one of them raising concerns the glut of candidates would split the vote and hand Republicans a shutout. Though less than 1,000 votes separate the second and third place candidates in several competitive races, Democrats have so far staved off a shutout races deemed vital to their chance of taking control of Congress.

In the race to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce in the 39th Congressional District, Republican Young Kim, a former assemblywoman who had Royce's endorsement, held a significant lead followed by Democrat Gil Cisneros in the crowded field of 17. Cisneros is an education advocate who won a record $266 million in the Mega Millions lottery in 2010.

In south Orange County's 49th District, where 16 candidates battled for the seat being vacated by Republican Darrell Issa, R-Vista, former Republican Assemblywoman Diane Harkey grabbed an early lead with almost 25 percent of the vote, but three Democrats -- retired Marine Col. Doug Applegate, who nearly defeated Issa during the last election cycle, education nonprofit CEO Sara Jacobs and former Orange County Democratic Party official Mike Levin -- were in a close contest for the second spot in the November general election.

Democrats barely squeaked out a second-place victory in the 48th Congressional District of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach. Of all the competitive races, it's where they faced the greatest risk of a shutout. In polls leading up to election day, Rohrabacher and former Orange County Republican Party Chairman Scott Baugh were leading. On Tuesday night Rohrabacher pulled out to an early lead, but Baugh could never quite get enough votes for second place. With all precincts in, Democrat Harley Rouda pulled a come-from behind victory surging into second place with just 73 votes more than Democratic biologist Hans Keirstead, who was endorsed by the California Democratic Party.

Speaking to his supporters in Orange County, Rohrabacher appeared un- concerned about his 30 percent showing as he proclaimed victory.

"Orange County, we are taking back America right here," he said.

Rohrabacher has faced questions in recent months about his connections with people tied to the Kremlin, leaving him open to Baugh's challenge and the possibility that voters will be choosing between two Republicans in the November general election.

Little about the race for U.S. Senate, however, was close. Incumbent Dianne Feinstein claimed victory with less than 6 percent of the votes counted Tuesday night. She had garnered 43.8 percent of the vote or 1,697,699 votes with her next closest Democrat Kevin de Leon pulling 11.3 percent and Republican James P Bradley, a close third with 8.8 percent of the vote. De Leon and Bradley spent much of Tuesday night jockeying back and forth in the race for second.

"Tonight's victory was because of you," tweeted Feinstein. "Thanks so much for your support and for your faith in me. Now it's on to November!"

"I'm running for the United States Senate to protect California in what are difficult and contentious times," Feinstein said. "This means standing up for our values as your United States Senator as well as working to pass legislation important to us in California.

"... Together, in this election, we must dedicate ourselves to those values, because they have made California a great state, ending the one-party control of our federal government and moving our nation away from division and polarization. Again, thanks so much for your support and for your faith in me. I'm not going to let you down. Now it's on to November."

As of Wednesday with all precincts reporting:

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Leading up to Tuesday's primaries, the glut of Democratic candidates and the state’s messy top two-primary system caused panic on the left, as it appeared California, the epicenter of the Trump resistance, could paradoxically turn out to be his bulwark against the threat of a blue wave. Nationwide, Democrats need to flip 23 congressional seats to retake control of the House. All 53 of California's congressional seats are on Tuesday's ballot.

“I think you have a lot of nervous candidates and they just don’t know how to read the tea leaves,” said Graeme Boushey, associate professor of political science at the University of California, Irvine. “We are going to be dealing with potentially razor thin margins.”

Three or four of the most competitive races sit squarely in conservative Orange County. The seats have long been held by Republicans, and Democrats in most years have put up few serious challengers. But suddenly, Democrats see opportunity in the conservative county that went against Trump, voting for the Democratic nominee for the first time since Franklin D. Roosevelt. In all, 18 Democrats are vyed to take a Republican incumbent’s seat in Orange County.

“In OC, the Democratic party is weaker than other parts of the state, but nonetheless the primary (was) going to be determined by what coalition turns out for these candidates,” said UCI’s Boushey. “There has been a lot of democartic infighting about who represents the progressing wing of the party.”

Midterm primaries tend to draw low voter turnout with Republicans, older and more affluent voters hitting the polls at higher rates. It tends to favor establishment candidates with party backing or union endorsements.

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“This goes down to whether or not the Trump moment in a primary brings out voters who historically have lower turnout in primaries. I think Trump is going to be animating enough. I think you are dealing with a Democratic base that is recoiling against much of the police and norm erosion of the Trump’s presidency.” Boushey added. “If there is a ‘Trump Bump,’ a large unexpected turnout among women you might see an interesting shift in who gets elected.”

Democrats in these races were beset by party infighting, a glut of candidates dividing the liberal vote, and an inability of the party to coalesce around a single candidate.

But these midterms have been no picnic for Republicans in Orange County either. In 2016, many Orange County Republicans recoiled from Trump, and Republicans had to chose whether to embrace the president of keep their distance.

“The challenges is a district where the Orange County Republican voter at the time of the presidential election wasn’t comfortable with Trump. Trump is crasser, and I think he made coastal elites slightly uncomfortable,” said Boushey. “Now Trump has delivered some very good things for Republican voters. It’s a challenge for candidates whether to hold him at arm’s length. In Rohrabacher’s district, is it the anti-Trumpers versus the Trump Diehards? That is an interesting debate to watch.”

Another closely watched race was in northern Los Angeles County, where Steve Knight, R-Lancaster, is looking for a third term in the 25th Congressional District, which covers the Santa Clarita and Antelope Valleys. He faced a bevy of Democratic challengers.

Notbaly, in the end, neither party has been anoint a favored candidate in several of the competitive races,

"I think the story of the election is that the parties are weakened and no longer as able to winnow down the field," said Boushey.

The Senate Race For Second

Longtime Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein was a lock to win the primary in her bid for re-election Tuesday.

It was the race for second that matters. Fellow Democrat Sen. Kevin de Leon, D-Los Angeles, came in at a distant second Tuesday.

In all 32 candidates vyednto unseat Feinstein, one of California’s most influential senators of the modern era. Feinstein has held her seat since 1992, but her reputation as a centrist is hurting her at a time when liberals are battling for control of the party. Rival de Leon has attempted to position himself as the more progressive alternative.

As California voters move ever more left, Feinstein has been shifting too. She used be in favor of the death penalty and is now opposed to it. She used to oppose recreational marijuana but now supports it. One area where she has remained steadfast is her advocacy for gun control.

The author of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban, which expired in 2004, she’s continued her drive for gun control as the nation reels from mass shootings.

De Leon, the progressive state senator representing downtown and East Los Angeles, has made a name for himself on the vanguard of California’s resistance to Trump.

De Leon, the first Latino president pro tem of the California Senate in more than a century, has seized on comments that Feinstein made when she said voters should have "patience" with Trump and that she still hoped he could be a "good president." He argues that Feinstein's reputation as a pragmatic centrist, make her the wrong choice to challenge Trump on immigration and other issues.

Still, the race wasn't entirely fought on the left. James P. Bradley, a little-known candidate with anemic fundraising, emerged as the Republican frontrunner, coming in third Tuesday. His success in polls had confounded some political experts. Paul Mitchell, vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data, opined that Bradley's support in an early UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll was because it listed the candidates in alphabetical order, and he was the first GOP candidate with "an Anglo-sounding name" and a respectable-sounding job of chief financial officer, according to the Sacramento Bee.

Bradley himself told The Bee he was "shocked" at the poll, but his support held in last week's IGS poll, which found him still leading all other Republicans despite the names appearing in a different order. (Get Patch real-time email alerts for the latest news from your California neighborhood. Also, download the free Patch iPhone app or free Patch Android app. Also, be sure to follow your local Patch on Facebook!)

City News Service contributed to this report. Photo: House Science, Space and Technology Committee member Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) questions witnesses from NASA, the Department of Defense and the White House during a hearing March 19, 2013 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images);U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) arrives at a weekly Senate Democratic Policy Luncheon at the Capitol May 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images); California State Senator Kevin de Leon delivers a speech on the first day of the Democratic National Convention July 25, 2016. (Photo by Jessica Kourkounis/Getty Images)