LA County's Stay-Home Coronavirus Orders Extended Into May

LOS ANGELES, CA — Los Angeles County Friday extended its stay-at-home and business- closure orders through May 15, warning that the region would face near universal infection by August unless physical-distancing requirements are extended.

According to county health officials, lifting the orders could lead to nearly 96% of the population being infected. The orders were set to expire on April 19.

According to a detailed analysis of the spread so far and models of future projections, Los Angeles County has "flattened the curve," meaning the region has so far staved off the kind of massive outbreak that would overwhelm hospitals. But a devastating outbreak still looms if stay-at-home requirements and business closures were lifted over the next month, according to the models.

"If you were to reduce physical distancing to the pre-health officer order levels, virtually all individuals in Los Angeles County, 95.6% per the model, would be infected by the pandemic by Aug. 1, 2020," said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the county's director of health services. "That number is starkly reduced, down to about 30%, if we maintain the current levels of physical distancing.

"If we're able to increase the level of physical distancing -- people are able to remain at home more than they are today -- then we could reduce the number of infected individuals even further, down to an estimated 5.5%," she said.

The number of coronavirus deaths topped 240 Friday in Los Angeles County, while more than 400 more cases were confirmed.

The extended shutdown comes just as health officials and community leaders are working frantically to convince residents not to attending gatherings to celebrate Easter or Passover. Violating social distancing orders could have deadly consequences, according to officials. Across the country, authorities have identified super-spreading events, single gatherings were a large number attendees have been infected and killed. Such super spreading events have included a choir practice in Washington, funerals in California and Georgia, and an extended family dinner in New Jersey.

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The county health orders were implemented in mid-March, requiring people to stay at home as much as possible and to avoid large public gatherings. The orders also shuttered non-essential businesses, leaving only retailers such as grocery stores, restaurants, pharmacies and other outlets open.

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The orders were issued in an effort to limit human interaction, particularly in response to the ability of people to transmit COVID-19 to others even before they know they are infected with the virus.

"Physical distancing is working," Ghaly said, pointing to projections showing there would have been a sharp rise in cases if such measures had never been implemented. "... It has worked to date and it is working now, and it is important that physical distancing remain in place ... to reduce not just the strain on the hospital system but to reduce the number of infections.

"... What we need to do is continue to slow the acceleration of the virus and make sure we are limiting its impact on society, limiting the infections," she said.

At the same time, a new study by Los Angeles County is looking to track asymptomatic carriers to determine just how far the virus has already spread. The findings may shed light on when tits safe to return to normal.

Dr. Roger Lewis, director of emergency medicine at Harbor UCLA Medical Center and head of the county Department of Health Services' "demand- modeling" efforts, said that while there remains a "tremendous amount of uncertainty" about the virus' spread, current projections show the county should have adequate hospital space to handle future patients. He noted that only about 3% of people who test positive for the virus will require hospitalization. Lewis said roughly 1% of those people will require intensive- care unit treatment, which could potentially run short if cases spike upward and no additional efforts are made to add ICU beds.

He said if physical-distancing efforts continue, it will have a dramatic impact on hospital demand. But he also warned that it remains possible that more stringent social-distancing measures might ultimately be needed.

"We know that physical distancing has taken a tremendous toll on our entire community, and that some of us are tragically mourning the loss of loved ones due to the COVID-19 epidemic," Lewis said. "Moreover, there remains substantial risk that the need for hospital-based services will exceed the system capacity -- even by large margins -- if there is any reduction in our physical-distancing behavior and other public health control efforts.

"Current data suggests that physical-distancing and public health directives have clearly slowed the spread of the epidemic and that has gained us valuable time to prepare for what lies ahead," he said. "However, it remains likely that the current measures are not sufficient to lead to a reduction in illness over times, and that more effective measures will be required."

While the public health orders were extended to May 15, officials could not provide any insight on whether they will actually end at that point, saying they will simply have to reevaluate the situation at that time.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.