RIVERSIDE, CA — Forecasters remain in a wait-and-see mode concerning the current El Niño, but history and data point to the likelihood of an intense storm season throughout the Inland Empire, beginning in the fall and continuing into next spring, according to meteorologists.
"The current El Niño looks as if it will strengthen through the end of the year," said longtime Bay Area weatherman Brian Sussman, author of "Climate Cult" and other books. "This could (be) the strongest El Niño event since 1950."
San Diego-based National Weather Service meteorologist Kyle Wheeler told City News Service that while there's no absolute indication "major rainfall events" will develop this fall and winter, the 2026-27 El Niño is shaping up to be "one of the strongest in the modern era."
Sussman cautioned against anyone putting too much stock in "reckless headlines" fraught with inflated descriptions intended to grab people's attention.
"Atmospheric scientists have every reason to believe that El Niño conditions have been periodically occurring for many thousands of years, long before ... fossil fuels were being blamed for global warming," he told CNS. "It is important to note that this is not the Earth's warmest weather ever."
Wheeler also dismissed some of the fever-pitched warnings about potential catastrophes stemming from the current El Niño.
"We don't have a huge sample size to go off of (regarding precipitation predictions)," he said. "El Niño years tend to favor above average precipitation in Southern California. But there are outliers. Take 2015- 16 — it was a `dry' El Niño."
According to NWS data for the Riverside metropolitan area, from October 2015 to March 2016, only 4.78 inches of precipitation was recorded. In the Palm Springs area, the total was 2.47 inches over the same period.
By contrast, from October 2016 to March 2017 — a non-El Niño season — the precipitation total in Riverside metro was 13 inches, figures showed. In Palm Springs and neighboring cities, the aggregate value was about 7 inches.
"You never can tell for sure with weather cycles," Wheeler said.
Forecasters, however, appear to be in agreement that the current cycle has impressive features, one of which is the number of hurricanes and tropical depressions that have developed in the Central Pacific this summer.
The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration said the current count of named hurricanes since June is two, while the norm for any given year is at most one.
Ocean temperatures are what determine the classification of an El Nino — weak, moderate, strong or very strong. A months-long deviation of .5 degrees Celsius above normal is rated "weak," but a deviation of 1.5 degrees or better falls into the "strong" category, according to NOAA.
The most recent climate metrics show a consistent 1.34-degree above- normal reading, according to Wheeler.
"The Climate Prediction Center is showing a 69% chance that the relative temperature anomaly will be greater than 2.6 degrees (in the next several months)," he said.
At that level, damaging storms similar to what transpired during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños are possible, according to meteorologists. Anytime there's "above average precipitation" in the inland region or surrounding locations, Wheeler said, "there's an increased threat of floods, landslides, rock slides and overflowing rivers."
According to Sussman, it's not hard to imagine the warmer ocean temperatures will "enhance winter storms forming in the Pacific."
"As a result, in the Southwestern U.S., there will be an increased risk of heavy rain and significant flooding, as storms fed by the tropical moisture move across the region," he said. "The outflow from offshore hurricanes in the Pacific could also send bursts of heavy rain into Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico, even without direct hurricane landfall."
Although a tropical depression fueled by monsoonal moisture caused major damage in the eastern Coachella Valley in August 2023, Riverside County's last widespread significant damage to transportation infrastructure, flood channels and homes occurred in the winter of 2019, during what the NWS defined as a "weak" El Niño period.
The county has not yet announced formal preparations for a potentially active storm season.
In the Cleveland National Forest abutting Corona, Lake Elsinore and the Temescal Valley, rangers told CNS they're ready to coordinate with the California Highway Patrol, Caltrans, Cal Fire and other agencies when emergency road closures and other actions are required during major storms this fall and winter.
"Normally, road closures happen in advance, but sudden weather changes may warrant sudden closures," Cleveland National Forest spokesperson Daniel Lanari said. "The majority of our truck trails are dirt or gravel, so during a storm, we close these roads and trails to help prevent slides and to mitigate incidents on these paths as much as possible."
Lanari advised motorists who use the Ortega (74) Highway and other corridors in or near the preserve to regularly monitor the CHP traffic portal, as well as fs.usda.gov/r05/cleveland/conditions for information.
The NWS in San Diego provides ongoing forecasts and predictions at weather.gov/sgx/.
To sign up for alerts from Riverside County's public safety agencies, go to rivcoready.org/alert-rivco.
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