Coronavirus Cases Surpass 2,000 In RivCo, But Signs Of Slowing

RIVERSIDE COUNTY, CA — The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Riverside County has surpassed 2,000 — a figure that ranks second in the state only to Los Angeles County, according to data released Wednesday afternoon. Riverside County also reported four more deaths due to the illness.

But there was some positive news Wednesday. Based on current modeling, which incorporates local and state data, the doubling rate of coronavirus cases has slowed in the county from every four to five days to now about every seven days, health officials announced.

Still, COVID-19 cases and deaths are on the rise across the county. The caseload rose Wednesday by 144 to 2,105 over a 24-hour reporting period, and the death toll increased to 54 over the same period.

See how many COVID-19 cases your city has here.

The statistics do show some encouraging signs: Patients who have recovered from COVID-19 rose by 40 people to 416. The number of reported hospitalizations dropped from 247 Tuesday to 235 Wednesday. Included in that number are 64 patients in intensive care units, according to the data.

During a press conference Wednesday afternoon, Dr. Geoffrey Leung, Riverside University Health System-Medical Center, announced that the latest modeling shows the county "may be entering a period of slowing" in terms of new COVID-19 cases.

Measures taken by the public — face coverings, hand washing, social distancing, staying home — appear to be paying off as evidenced in the slowed doubling rate, Leung said

"I'm cautiously optimistic," he said, noting that the county may have averted a hospital surge.

Previous models showed the county was headed to an infection rate of greater than 65,000 people by early May. But the current modeling suggests the figure may only reach 13,000 if today's doubling rate continues on the same trajectory.

Depending on how well the public practices covering their faces, hand washing, social distancing and staying home over the coming days and weeks will determine whether that number drops or rises, Leung said, explaining the range could be between 4,000 infections by early May — or as high as 90,000 if the public becomes lax with guidelines.

Currently, hospitals are about half full, in large part due to postponement of elective surgeries countywide. ICU beds are 74 percent occupied and the county has 315 available ventilators out of a total of 523, said Dr. Michael Mesisca, Riverside University Health System-Medical Center.

The decision on when to gradually begin reopening the local economy is still pending. Riverside County officials are weighing data multiple times a day and following a framework set forth Tuesday by Gov. Gavin Newsom, said Kim Saruwatari, director, Riverside University Health System-Public Health.

The governor outlined six "indicators" that should be considered before lifting current restrictions, but some of his points are reliant on state and federal government response. For example, whether the state has expanded testing, contact tracing of COVID-19 patients, and the ability to isolate and support people who have tested positive or were exposed to COVID-19. An additional indicator set forth by the governor is whether the state has developed new treatments for the novel coronavirus.

When and how the county eventually reopens is "a very fluid situation," Saruwatari said.

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