Record heat so far this year and anemic snowpack have forecasters warning of an increased risk of catastrophic wildfires this summer and fall across the Golden State.
As parts of the state slipped back into drought this month, firefighters have begun bracing for brutal wildfire conditions.
“Expanding drought, combined with heat, wind, and dry vegetation, is a dangerous combination,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. “Similar to the benchmark wildfire season of 2020, conditions later this year could support any fires that ignite to spread faster, grow larger, and become more difficult to contain. Larger and more intense wildfires can also lead to widespread smoke impacts across the central and eastern United States, as millions of people experienced in 2023.”
Southern California will see fire danger increase as summer progresses this year, particularly in interior and lower-elevation areas where grasses dry out and become more flammable, according to forecast service AccuWeather.
"Through the middle of July, there will be an uptick in fires due to drying of the soil and extended periods of dry weather," AccuWeather spokesman Chad Merrill told Patch. "There is a dry lightning risk in July and August due to thunderstorms."
Compared to recent years, there is a higher potential for a few tropical storms to survive the trip from the East Pacific into Southern California during the mid-to-late summer, Merrill said.
"Should this happen, the fire risk would be lowered a bit in Southern California," he added. "However, a weakening tropical storm would lose a bit of its moisture but introduce a dry thunderstorm risk."
A total of 500,000-750,000 acres of land are expected to burn across California in 2026, or between 8,000 and 9,000 wildfires.
A projected acreage burn for just Southern California by itself isn't available, Merrill said, because AccuWeather doesn't break the state down by regions.
Southern California's dry season may be interrupted by rounds of showers and storms starting later in June. Because of that, brief vegetation growth from late storms could later become fuel for blazes.
Aaron Katon, a captain with the Los Angeles County Fire Department, told Patch that LA County is under "a constant threat" of severe wildfires.
"The reason for that is really simple: we're in a Mediterranean climate that tends toward wet, short winters and long, dry summers," he explained. "When you combine that dryness and low humidity that comes from our climate with the threat of the (Santa Ana) winds, then Los Angeles County, in general, along with the rest of Southern California — Ventura County, Santa Barbara, Orange County — suffer from a similar phenomenon."
Katon said that LA County's foothill areas, as well as the Santa Monica Mountains and inland valleys like Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valleys, are especially vulnerable to wildfires.
He recommended that people visit the Fire Hazard Severity Zones section of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) website for more information.
LA County residents can also visit fire.lacounty.gov for information on creating a personal wildfire action plan.
John Clingingsmith Jr., spokesman for the Riverside division of CAL FIRE, told Patch that his agency isn't currently expecting anything extreme to happen during the summer.
"Analysts are predicting a normal peak burning period for us," he said.
His agency, however, has said that Southern California is forecasted to remain warmer and drier through the early summer due to three factors: below-normal precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and a shallower-than-normal marine layer limiting inland moisture recovery.
"The region will continue its normal seasonal progression from spring conditions into June coastal marine influence and then into the hot, dry summer pattern," CAL FIRE said in a statement. "Monsoonal moisture is expected to develop in mid-to-late July, slightly later than normal, with near-normal shower and thunderstorm activity anticipated."
Oscar Sotelo, a San Diego-based fire captain with CAL FIRE told Patch that people who want to reduce the fire risk around their homes should take certain steps, one of which is to create what's called defensible space.
"What that is, is a complete 100 feet around their building or up to their property line of reducing those combustible fuels," like dead or overgrown vegetation, he said.
"One thing they can do is some hardscaping; maybe remove wood chips and replace them with gravel. Really focus on removing all dead or dying plants from gutters or the roof, the stairways and porches," he added. "Keep things nice and mowed or raked up."
"One other thing is remove branches within 10 feet of a chimney and limit your combustible items like outdoor furniture or planters," Sotelo said.
Clingingsmith added that online resources are also available with more information.
"ReadyForWildfire.org is a great resource for all three zones of property (residential, commercial and industrial) and what measures to take to make them safer," he said. "It not only gives information about clearance, but also fire-smart landscaping."
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