LONG BEACH, CA — It starts with a splash of the tail, and then the telltale triangle fin slices through the blue-grey water off the coast of Santa Barbara.
Foil surfer Ron Takeda knows the answer before he calls to his friend.
"Is that a shark?"
"Yeah, don't fall," fellow foil surfer Tavis Boise helpfully advises.
A high speed shark chase about a mile off the Santa Barbara coast is suddenly on and it lasts for about a mile as Takeda attempts to escape the persistent shark.
The entire scenario involving what is believed to be a 10-12-foot mako shark last week was one of several aggressive shark encounters off the Southern California coast, heralding what experts warn is going to be a shark summer.
Unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean earlier this year have been attributed to more shark activity along California's coastal areas. The shark activity normally emerges in July. And some experts say abnormal patterns in the ocean's temperatures likely spell more sharks this summer.
Oceanographers have predicted there could be a stronger El Niño this year compared to previous. Last month, one of the leading weather forecast models calculated a 62 percent chance that a strong El Niño could develop in the summer.
Experts say the potential return of the climate phenomenon, which is being dubbed "Super El Niño" and "Godzilla El Niño," could have an impact on shark activity.
RELATED: Meteorologists Sound Alarm On 'Worst El Nino In 140 Years'
Dr. Chris Lowe, a professor of marine biology at California State University Long Beach (CSULB) and director of the Shark Lab, said warmer temperatures in the ocean are known to trigger sharks and other mammals to move closer to shorelines.
"I have a feeling its going to get busy. Sharks are already shuffling," said Lowe.
The last major El Niño in 2015-2016, when parts of the central Pacific Ocean broke warming records, California recorded a spike in shark sightings and unusual events such as a dozen great white sharks lingering for days close to shore in Surfside and a hammerhead nibbling a kayaker off the coast of Malibu.
More shark activity has been reported this spring, particularly in Southern California, including Los Angeles, Orange, and Santa Barbara counties. Last week, a 10-foot shark spotted in Huntington Beach made headlines for its reportedly "aggressive" behavior, prompting a beach closure and postponing a surf competition.
Over the next few days, aggressive sharks, including a great white feeding on a sea lion near Sunset Beach, prompted two more beach closures in Orange County.
RELATED: Aggressive Shark Crashes OC Surf Competition, Shutting Down Contest
Lowe said California's coasts are plentiful source of food for sharks, and some beaches could see a migration of shark species, including bull and tiger sharks, for example.
"That doesn't mean people shouldn't go to the beach and go into the water, they should just be more aware," Lowe said.
A professional drone cinematographer Carlos Guana documented multiple sighting of adult great white sharks on the Southern California coastline in a video posted to his YouTube channel on April 19.
"At first, there's nothing, just a trail. But this one is different, it's big. And then when I finally see the shark, I realize this isn't a small shark. These days I'm finding more sharks of this size closer to shore," he said in the video of the sightings.
Lowe said increased shark activity does not mean there is a greater risk of humans being bitten by a shark.
The Shark Lab at CSULB, which actively tracks the movements of more than 200 sharks along using transmitters, has a long history of elasmobranch research, released a study in 2023 that juvenile sharks swam near humans on coast lines on 97 percent of the days they were present. The study was conducted using drone technology in San Diego and Santa Barbara counties.
RELATED: At CA Beaches, There Is A Shark Nearby 97% Of The Time, Study Finds
Though shark encounters can be deadly, and the state did see a record number of shark encounters last year, it is rare for humans to be bitten by sharks in California. According to the state Department of Fish & Wildlife, there have been less than 250 shark encounters from 1950 to 2022 between humans and all shark species, and of those, less than 20 were fatal attacks.
That may be little consolation, however, when a mako, the fastest species of shark, develops a keen interest in your foil board.
Boise captured the shark chasing his friend on video and posted it online, explaining, "While in the middle of a 20 mile downwind foil run from UCSB to Carpinteria, Ron Takeda and I buzzed over a shark. This triggered an intense curiosity, and the shark followed Ron closely for over a mile. He turned left, it turned left. He sped up, it sped up. It was a full game of cat and mouse, but...with a 10-11ft shark. After what felt like an eternity for Ron, it finally peeled away in search of something else to play with."
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