Tropical Storm Marie strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane overnight while remaining well offshore, but Southern California should brace for possible high surf, dangerous rip currents, flooding, rain and thunderstorms over the Labor Day weekend.
Forecasters continue to put the odds of Marie directly striking SoCal as a hurricane or tropical storm at very low. The most likely track keeps the storm moving northwest and well southwest of the region through the holiday weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
Even without a direct hit, moisture from Marie could be drawn into Southern California beginning this weekend.
There is a 50% to 60% chance of widespread light rain totaling 0.10 to 0.50 inches from Sunday through Tuesday. There is also a 10% to 15% chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms, according to the NWS.
Forecasters also expect increasing humidity and cloud cover over the weekend.
The potential for rain is expected to increase from Saturday into Sunday as tropical moisture moves northward, though forecasters said considerable uncertainty remains over where the moisture will concentrate.
There is also a 10% to 15% chance of moderate to strong easterly winds developing ahead of the rain, potentially creating fire-weather concerns.
The greater concern heading into the holiday weekend is along the coast.
A south-to-southeast swell generated by Marie is expected to increase surf across Southern California beaches during the weekend. The largest surf is expected from Oceanside northward, according to the NWS.
Swells from Hurricane Karina, which dissipated at the end of August, are also expected to remain in the region.
High surf advisories are likely at south-facing beaches, particularly Sunday through Monday night, with very strong rip currents possible.
Evening high tides are forecast to reach about 6.5 to 6.8 feet Sunday and around 7 feet Monday, increasing the risk of flooding in low-lying coastal areas and beach erosion. Moderate coastal flooding could occur if the largest surf arrives around high tide, forecasters said.
Tropical Storm #Marie is currently NOT forecast to move toward Southern California. If you live in California, be sure to visit the National Hurricane Center, @NWSSanDiego, @NWSLosAngeles and @NWSBayArea for official forecasts: https://t.co/HRRybeh0jh pic.twitter.com/bCPWq4nhr4
— NHC Pacific (@NHC_Pacific) September 1, 2026
KTLA reported that areas vulnerable to the combination of high surf and high tides include Avalon, Long Beach, Malibu and Point Mugu. Portions of Santa Barbara County could also be affected depending on the direction of the swell.
Marie continued strengthening off Baja California on Wednesday. As of 10 a.m. Pacific time, the storm was southwest of Cabo San Lucas with sustained winds around 75 mph, KTLA reported.
Marie could strengthen further as it moves northwest before eventually weakening over cooler water, forecasters said.
Before tropical moisture reaches the region, relatively quiet conditions are expected through Friday. Temperatures in Los Angeles and Orange counties are forecast to remain about 2 to 6 degrees below normal in most areas, with overnight and morning marine-layer clouds and fog near the coast and some coastal valleys.
Nights are expected to become warmer over the holiday weekend. Some inland areas could see slightly cooler daytime temperatures depending on how much cloud cover and tropical moisture arrive.
Forecast confidence decreases later in the weekend because small changes in Marie's path could substantially alter rainfall, wind and coastal impacts.
"Needless to say, the weather for the upcoming Labor Day weekend may be highly dynamic," the National Weather Service said. "A minor change in the track of Marie could result in significant changes to the current forecast."
City News Service contributed to this report.
Sign up for free local newsletters and alerts for the
Los Angeles Patch
Patch.com is the nationwide leader in hyperlocal news.
Visit Patch.com to find your town today.