A FOREIGN POLICY HYPOTHESIS.....

Why did we fight in Vietnam….? Well, we subscribed to a “domino” theory…...the theory that if we don’t stop the spread of communism in Vietnam…that soon, the Soviet backed communists will spread their influence throughout Asia and there would be a pending threat not only to our allies in the region, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc., but to the preservation of democracy itself….

Those ideas seemed a little worthy of discussion…after all, we were in the midst of the Cold War…and it was an “us vs. them” mentality……Of the three great super powers, we were the only democracy….we didn’t want to risk the spread of communism….Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson (to a much greater extent), and Nixon agreed.

We know now that this was a colossal waste of lives, resources, and moral authority….it was a total disaster….80% of the citizens of Vietnam were in support of Ho Chi Minh…and why wouldn’t they be? He had just liberated his country from the grip of French colonialism. It was a hard fought war….that ended over 50 years of French rule. Yet, we thought we knew what was best for the Vietnamese…and that was to override the will of 80% of the Vietnamese people….either that, or we were only concerned with our own interests….

Flash forward to Now…..We have been in battle with ISIS for 10 months now…many in Washington, especially the Republican candidates for President, are calling for a much greater military involvement in combating ISIS with the idea that ISIS is an international threat that (we) must stop before they end up in line at Disneyworld AND, that our involvement will somehow make things better…in a way that they exactly haven’t during the last 12 years in our war with Iraq and Afghanistan……We see a fire and we bring gasoline.

Let’s start with the first premise….we can all agree that ISIS is heinous beyond definition…But, unlike historic national enemies, Japan, Germany, Italy, North Korea, North Vietnam (the later who had a great deal of Soviet support and equipment), ISIS is more of a club, than a “nation”. They are more like the ”Shriners” than the Soviets. Yes, they are doing despicable things in the Middle East but their force totals approximately 40,000 at last count…not even enough to fill Dodger Stadium, even if you close the bleachers….The Iraqi Army alone has 140,000 troops. On the other hand, ISIS has no Air Force, which Jordan, Turkey, Israel, the Saudi’s, Iran, etc., possess….they have no tanks, or sophisticated surface to air missiles or other sophisticated weaponry, as far as anyone knows. They have lots of sophisticated rifles, and sharp knives, and they have a lot of hatred and passion…they are deadly for sure, but what makes us think that they are going to take over the entire middle east, and then, after they have done that….they are going to mount a force that will make it to the shores of the United States….? That sounds ridiculous....I’m more afraid of asteroids.

I think Israel might have something to say before things get even close to that status…..How does a force of 40,000 control territory in the long run? It can take it over, for awhile maybe, but it is not sustainable....they woudl needs 100’s of thousands of forces to do any more than what they are doing. Do we really think that ISIS taking Kabul is the precursor to the invasion of Washington D.C.? That is a huge leap of fear!!!

And, how about the second premise…….that our presence actually leads to victory? Those who are recommending War have been wrong about all of their predictions....total disasters. I’m not going to Vegas with any of them.  There is plenty of evidence that our presence in that region acts as a perfect incubator for the hatching of more and more ISIS fighters. A video of random be-headings, as heinous as that is, does not a national threat make?

A withdrawal from the entire region just might signal to that region that they had better take care of themselves…..

and besides....so what if we take Ramadi back from ISIS, etc., then what? We had better be prepared to occupy the entire region for the rest of humanity or else another vacuum will be created that will suck in the ”the bad, the vile, and the ugly”. The bottom line is that Hussein provided stability.....it’s a cruel paradox but it is self evident....

There is no plausible way to put that Genie back in it’s bottle....

P.S. Seeing the many Iraq and Afghanistan War veterans coming home with missing limbs, or missing brains, or missing lives, and broken hearts....teenagers, and fathers to young families, and sons to parents, and young husbands to wives....is quite more than my stomach and heart can accept...for a cause that is nebulous at best, and futile in reality. 58,000 died in Vietnam for no good reason.....I don’t see any ”good reasons” in front of us at this moment in time......

Our young men and women, our sons and brothers, are a precious commodity....way too valuable to be sacrificed for ”lost” or peripheral causes.

Food for Thought.....

These are my opinions...always open to scrutiny, challenge, and reshuffling.