Old Balinese saying: Beware the high-speed rail tiger on the path you least expect!

Several weeks ago, Congresswoman , State Senator , and Assemblyman held a press conference in and made the following pronouncements.

1. They insisted that two tracks on the Caltrain corridor -- the two that are there now -- would be sufficient for not only Caltrain and the infrequent Union Pacific freights, but high-speed rail as well. Four tracks are unnecessary they said, as is an elevated viaduct structure, now intended for the rail corridor by the rail authority.

2. Eshoo, Simitian and Gordon also asked that the rail authority should terminate its current engineering design and CEQA EIS studies for the Caltrain corridor, especially the HSR preferred elevated viaduct alternative, since construction of any kind can't commence on that corridor for lack of funds and the existing obligation to begin construction in the Central Valley.

3. And, Eshoo particularly, asked for Caltrain electrification using HSR federal funds.

Their demands of the rail authority were applauded by many on the Peninsula, believing that this was a major step in the right direction.

A very small minority, me among them, disagree with all this.  We believe that these demands are just another way of saying that we "want it done right." Joe Simitian makes that statement frequently.  There are other HSR groups on the Peninsula who also say, "we want it done right."  Now we are beginning to learn what "right" looks like.  Two tracks on the Caltrain corridor, tracks shared with HSR, electrification for Caltrain.

Some of us don't want it "done right." The fact is, it can't be done right.  We don't want it done at all.  We don't want high-speed rail on the Caltrain corridor with either two tracks or four. We believe that what Eshoo, Simitian and Gordon are asking for is a circuitous way of bringing HSR on the corridor, presumably without HSR funding. Or at least, it will get HSR's foot in the door (like Alpha dogs that mark territory).

These elected officials are ignoring the huge costs of running ANY additional trains on these tracks, especially those that involve a different operator (HSR), different rolling stock technologies, and different speed requirements.  For all this, there must be passing rails at every station for the faster trains to bi-pass the Caltrain commuter trains.

Did you know that Union Pacific has total control over any possible inter-city rail operator coming to the Caltrain corridor?  Did you know that the freight operators have no love for high-speed rail sharing the same corridor with them?  And that includes Union Pacific.

Electrification, with Caltrain rolling stock upgrades, is hugely expensive ($1.5 billion; probably a great deal more.). In addition, there are needs for PTC, signalling, and HSR depot yards. Platform heights at stations will need to be adjusted. And, remember, we're talking two tracks, not four. Grade separations are being ignored in these conversations only because the funding for them doesn't exist.

The fact is, there are no funds for any of this; not for four tracks, not for two.  And, it's highly misleading to suggest that HSR can just pop its trains on top of the current two track system used by Caltrain.

The rail authority has no funding for any work other than in the Central Valley.  However, they are eager to lock in access to the Caltrain corridor, per their MOU with the Caltrain Joint Powers Board and Mike Scanlon.  What is being proposed now is a way they can do that for free, and Simitian, Eshoo et al, are enabling them.

CEO Roelof Van Ark has recently been promoting a new term, "phased implementation." That's a sneaky way of saying that they will do what they have money for, and do more later when they get more funds.  Meanwhile, they will create the appearance that all this planning is intentionally staged and sequenced.

If you really look at what's been going on over time, it should become clear that the rail authority is constantly improvising and winging it. There is no clear, realistic plan.  There never was.

The California voters were bamboozled with bond issue verbiage which promised a $33 billion train, for which the bond issue would be one third.  The other two thirds of that would come from the federal government and private investors. Furthermore, they promised 117 million annual riders and $55 train tickets. That way, their arithmetic would work out for the train to be profitable and thereby eligible for private investment.  That was, and still is, all untrue.

Contrary to their most recent forecasts, there will be no 39 million annual riders. Remember, all of Amtrak in the US carries only 27 million riders annually, and that's over thousands of miles of track connecting hundreds of cities. The HSR construction costs are already pegged at $66 billion and I would project them to be in the $100 billion plus range. 

There will be no surplus revenue and therefore there will be no private investors.

So, what about the Caltrain corridor?  Yet another scam.  Caltrain argues that they need HSR to buy the electrification and grade separations whereby they can go faster and thereby reduce, if not eliminate, their structural deficit.  At the same time, HSR gets 55 miles of rail corridor to San Francisco for free, forever.  It's a marriage made in hell!  

Caltrain can benefit only if HSR builds everything that they are being promised; electrification, grade separations, and other electrical goodies. But it still won't solve Caltrain's real problem which their structural deficit for operational costs.  

Meanwhile, Caltrain isn't getting any leasing fees from HSR for the use of the corridor.  Caltrain, which believes it's getting such a great deal from HSR, is really getting skunked. What HSR is doing on the Caltrain corridor is for the benefit of HSR.  Once firmly ensconced, HSR won't care what happens to Caltrain.

In another blog, we'll discuss the Caltrain situation WITHOUT high-speed rail.  Let's just conclude by saying that while we don't want high-speed rail on the Caltrain corridor, we do want and need a Peninsula commuter rail service.  It just shouldn't be managed by Caltrain; but that's another story.
--

Download the movie