Ventura County economy ‘among the most sluggish’ in SoCal

Ventura County is the most vulnerable among the six counties across Southern California with regard to a potential recession, according to a new economic report.

The report, released Thursday by the Southern California Association of Governments as part of its 13th Annual Southern California Economic Summit, documents Ventura County’s struggles to attract the workforce lost during the COVID-19 pandemic recession. Despite a historically low unemployment rate of 3.2 percent, the county has thousands of unfilled positions.

“The economy of Ventura County is the most sluggish in the SCAG region in terms of job growth, new housing, and consumer spending on retail goods and services,” said Mark Schniepp of the California Economic Forecast. “As a result, the county lacks the momentum to overcome the potential drag of a global recession, persistent inflation, continued drought in California, or an inability to replenish a declining labor force.”

Schniepp is part of a new Economic Roundtable convened by the SCAG – which hosted the Summit in downtown Los Angeles – to provide both a snapshot of the region now as well as a preview of economic opportunities and challenges ahead. Their research was compiled in a report that offered caution on turbulence ahead from global forces, but also promise that Southern California is better positioned than other regions to withstand it.

Among the factors that could moderate the impacts of a possible recession across the region as a whole:

• Continued growth in core industries such as information, logistics and tourism
• Measurable increases in labor productivity in 2022
• New development and construction in infrastructure and housing, both public and private
• Household debt and real estate values that are less likely to decline than elsewhere

“With improvements in the global inflation picture, combined with continuing 2022’s positive momentum, the region’s economy raises hopes that the much-anticipated global recession of 2023 will not severely impact Southern California,” said Dr. Gigi Moreno, Senior Economist at SCAG.

However, threats do remain. In Ventura County, lack of job growth, housing availability and affordability (a median home price of $850,000), and migration out of the county are among the biggest challenges.

“The large migration outflow from Ventura County over the last few years is the primary reason for the shrinking labor force and the lack of traction in restoring the labor market,” Schniepp said, noting that the county is down 13,000 workers from where it was before the pandemic.

Click here for the complete Southern California Economic Update.