GOP Guns For California House Seats Despite Democrats' Voter Edge

LOS ANGELES, CA — If the path to a Democratic House majority ran through California in 2018, could the Golden State also be Republicans' ticket back to power in 2020?

Republicans are banking on it. Going after the seats that flipped from red to blue in 2018, they are targeting the seemingly vulnerable freshman Democratic legislators in the newly ‘purple’ districts. But for the party of Lincoln in the age of Trump, there are few corners of California that can be taken for granted — Republican voter registration continues to freefall, slipping to less than a quarter of registered voters in California. Even powerful House member and staunch Trump-ally Devin Nunes has an expensive fight on his hands this year with Democrats gunning for him in his traditionally red district. Democrats may also be able to count on an edge in voter turnout for the March 3 primary thanks to the highly competitive Democratic presidential primary.

But Republicans are going after freshman Democrats in competitive districts.

“The seven Democrats who won ran with a blank slate in 2018 now have to run on their records,” Torunn Sinclair of the National Republican Congressional Committee told KTLA in an email. “They have to answer for why nothing is getting done.”

Whereas seven seats flipped from Republican to Democratic in California last election season, no seats in the state are considered toss-ups this time around, according to the Cook Political Report. Still, five seats — all currently held by Democrats — are considered competitive. Though prognosticators may give the Democratic incumbents the edge, their Republican challengers have a real shot at unseating them just as they all did to Republican incumbents two years ago.

The five California districts The Cook Political Report lists as competitive include:

• The 10th District seat in the northern San Joaquin Valley held by Democrat Josh Harder
• The 21st District seat also in the San Joaquin Valley held by Democrat TJ Cox
• The 39th District in northeastern Orange County held by Democrat Gil Cisneros
• The 45th District in inland south Orange County held by Democrat Katie Porter
• The 48th District in coastal Orange County held by Democrat Harley Rouda.

All five incumbents hold seats in districts that were red just three years ago, and Porter and Rouda hold office in districts where Republican voters outnumber Democrats. Cisneros’ district is fairly evenly split among Republicans and Democrats. Of the vulnerable incumbents, only Cox and Harder hold seats in Districts where their party makes up a majority of the voters.

While President Donald Trump’s approval ratings remain dismal in California (just 35% of California likely voters approve of him), his party has coalesced around him since 2018 after he survived both the Russia probe and impeachment. Demoralized Republicans who sat out the 2018 midterms could be feeling more hopeful this time around.

Nowhere is that optimism more evident than in California’s 25th District where a whopping 13 candidates are running to fill the seat vacated by freshman Democrat Katie Hill. Hill resigned in a cloud of scandal amid allegations that she had a sexual relationship with congressional staffer. A conservative outlet posted nude photos of the congresswomen, and she resigned, vowing to combat revenge porn as a private citizen.

Red just a few years ago, Democrats now hold enough of a voter registration lead in the 25th that it is considered more of a longshot for Republicans.

Yet, Six Republicans are vying to take back the 25th District including Steve Knight, the former Congressman Hill ousted, and Trump advisor George Papadopoulos, who was briefly imprisoned for lying to the FBI during the Russia probe. Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the historically conservative LA County suburb, but several Democrats are also fighting it out in this hotly contested district. Democratic moderate, Christy Smith, who snagged her party’s major endorsements, is up against liberal shock jock Cenk Uyge, who briefly touted the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders before Uyge’s alleged history of misogynist statement’s caused Sanders to withdraw his support.

If the 25th District’s congressional race has the air of a circus, it’s no less colorful than the 50th Congressional District spanning much of northeast San Diego County and a portion of Riverside County.

Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter had to vacate the seat because he may be headed to prison for using his campaign funds to fund a lavish lifestyle. The stain of Hunter’s misconduct likely isn’t enough to make the seat competitive for Democrats, however, because Republicans hold a massive edge in voter registration in that district.

Despite the fact that he’s probably headed to prison, Hunter’s name remains on the ballot, so (in theory) Hunter’s 2018 Democratic rival Ammar Campa-Najjar will get a rematch. In truth, the candidate to beat in the 50th appears to be former longtime Congressman Darrell Issa, who opted not to run for reelection in his nearby 49th District in 2018. His emergence in the 50th is a sign that Republicans aren’t ceding anything this election season.