Trump Turns Off California Voters At Record Rate: Poll

LOS ANGELES, CA — The president is having a bad week, and California is not making it any better for him. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released this week concludes that California voters are poised to hand President Donald Trump a defeat that makes his 30 point loss to Hillary Clinton in 2016 look kind of good.

According to the UC Berkeley pollsters, Trump is on track to deliver a Republican’s worst performance in the Golden State since the Civil War. But Trump doesn’t need California to win reelection, and his lack of popularity in the state is no real surprise. But the poll does raise some alarms for a GOP that sees California as key to winning back the House of Representatives. Simply put, Trump is an albatross for down ballot candidates. That is a problem for the party because Republicans need to flip 18 seats to win back the house in 2020, and national strategists are pinning their hopes on California to make that happen.

“I see an easy path for 12 pickup seats. It’s the last six that will be tough, and that actually runs through California,” Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus told Politico. “If we don’t pick up any in California, it will be virtually impossible.”

Party officials think they may be able to pick off vulnerable freshman Democrats who squeaked by in 2018 with victories in purple or conservative-leaning districts. Indeed, well-known figures are already lining up to take on the freshman Democrats — namely Orange County representatives Gil Cisneros, Katie Porter, Harley Rouda and Mike Levin. Challengers are also lining up to take on Rep. Katie Hill in Los Angeles County and Rep. Josh Harder in Stanislaus County. Furthermore, impeachment proceedings may paint each of these new representatives into a corner, forcing them to vote to either defy their base or risk inflaming the moderates they must court for reelection.

But Trump isn’t making it any easier on their Republican challengers either.

Just 29 percent of likely California voters polled say they would vote for Trump in 2020. The poll was taken before the Ukraine scandal broke and before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi officially kicked off the impeachment inquiry.

Trump's overall approval rating in California is also weak.

According to researchers, “The poll also finds 69 percent of the state’s registered voters disapproving of the job Trump is doing as President, a record high. Just 31 percent of Californians approve of the President’s performance. The current poll also finds Californians to be more negative about the overall direction of the country than they were in March 2017 at the beginning of Trump’s tenure as President.”

Trump’s dismal approval rating in California may translate into an enthusiasm gap down ballot with traditionally conservative voters staying home on election day.

According to the poll, Trump lost standing in California since 2016 when more than four million more voters chose Clinton over Trump. Since then, Trump has lost standing with a sizeable segment of his supporters, the poll found. In California, at least, Trump’s base is eroding.

According to Berkeley pollsters, “there has been asix-point decline in the proportion of likely voters inclined to re-elect Trump among evangelical Christians from 58 percent in 2016 to 52 percent, a five-point decline among voters who identify themselves as very conservative in politics from 89 percent to 84 percent, and another five point decline among the state’s white non-Hispanics from 37 percent to 32 percent.

“Trump’s declining electoral fortunes in California could dispirit Republican voters here, reducing GOP turnout in next year’s primary and general elections," Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley poll told the Los Angeles Times. "This could spell trouble for Republican candidates running in competitive elections for Congress, Assembly and state Senate.”