Coronavirus Update For Orange County: Where We Go From Here

ORANGE COUNTY, CA — On election day, Orange County officials reported 306 new COVID- 19 diagnoses and one additional coronavirus-related fatality, raising the cumulative case total to 60,604.

The Orange County Health Care Agency removed one cause of death due to coronavirus, where an assisted living facility resident's cause of death was changed, accounting for the new death toll to 1,484.

The rate of deaths has been trending down over the past few weeks, a welcome sign for those awaiting better news within the county.

From Oct. 25 through last Saturday, there were 39 deaths reported, up from 35 the week before, but lower than 69 the previous week. Since Sunday, there have been two deaths reported.

The number of hospitalizations related to the virus went from 183 Monday to 177 Tuesday, with the number of intensive care unit patients remaining at 60, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency.

The three-day average of hospitalized patients dropped from 2.2 percent to -1.8 percent.

As of Nov. 3, Orange County Health Care reports the county has 37 percent of its intensive care unit beds and 65 percent of its ventilators available.

According to OCHCA data, 1,131,297 COVID-19 tests have been conducted since the start of the pandemic, including an additional 5,057 reported Tuesday.

There have been 53,934 estimated residents who have recovered from coronavirus, based upon the latest figures.

The county's positivity rate, which is reported each Tuesday, has remained at 3.2 percent for the past three weeks, but the daily case rate per 100,000 population increased from 4.6 last week to 5.1. That metric will be officially reported Wednesday because of the election, Dr. Clayton Chau, director of the HCA and the county's chief health officer, told the Orange County Board of Supervisors Tuesday.

The county's Health Equity Quartile Positivity Rate, which is a state mandate to focus on hot spots in counties, stands at 6 percent. The county has to reach at least 5.2 percent in that metric to move into the orange tier from the red tier in the state's coronavirus monitoring system.

Officials have said the daily average of new cases would have to come down to about 130 for Orange County to move from the red to the orange tier, allowing for more businesses to reopen and for some already open to increase their capacity.
However, if cases rise too much, the county could slip back into the most restrictive purple tier.

"Three hundred is not good," said Orange County CEO Frank Kim. "But it's par for the course for what we're seeing in Southern California."

Kim hopes the uptick in cases reported Tuesday dates back over the past few weeks.

"Hopefully it is related to stuff two weeks ago and has already washed through our health system," Kim said. "But it's pretty clear we're in an environment of rising case rates. The only question is when do we hit our peak and what is the impact on hospitalizations. So far the hospitalizations have been minor, but who knows."

Chau told the Board of Supervisors that he expects the case rate per 100,000 will likely be in the "high 5 to 6" range, which will keep the county within the red tier. The county cannot exceed 7, Chau said.

"For the month of October it's been 4.5 to about 5 or so," he said. "Since Oct. 29, the number has gone up quite a bit... We've seen cases going up statewide. Our colleagues in San Diego are on the edge of red and purple."

The county remains within the orange tier for the positivity rate, Chau said.

"We are encouraging our community to, number one, if they're sick they need to stay home," Chau said. "We encourage people to get their regular flu vaccine and because the weather is getting colder, a lot of activity will move indoors, so we encourage people to be really careful and follow (public health guidelines)."

Chau said there have been no outbreaks in the county's schools since they have reopened, "so you will see some of the school districts will reopen for in-person education throughout the month of November, December into January."

Close quarters, Halloween gatherings and looking ahead to cooler days and fall and winter gatherings are a source of anxiety, Dr. Chau says.

"Just folks gathering, getting fatigue about all the (social distancing) behavior they need to do," he says. "It's not just happening in California, but it's happening elsewhere in the U.S., as well as worldwide. Several countries in Europe have entered lockdown for a month."

Board Chairwoman Michelle Steel asked county staff during Tuesday's meeting about what impact a tentative ruling this week from a Sutter County Superior Court judge restricting Gov. Gavin Newsom's authority to issue executive orders during an emergency will have on Orange County.

"It was a very interesting decision," County Counsel Leon Page said. "It was a tentative decision so it's not final yet, not binding on the court. The judge can change her mind."

Page also noted Newsom can appeal it and will likely do so.

The latest city by city coronavirus count in Orange County is as follows, as of Tuesday:

• Aliso Viejo - 436 Total Cases
• Anaheim - 10362 Total Cases
• Brea - 588 Total Cases
• Buena Park - 1743 Total Cases
• Costa Mesa - 2063 Total Cases
• Coto de Caza - 53 Total Cases
• Cypress - 620 Total Cases
• Dana Point - 317 Total Cases
• Fountain Valley - 586 Total Cases
• Fullerton - 2926 Total Cases
• Garden Grove - 3321 Total Cases
• Huntington Beach - 2658 Total Cases
• Irvine - 1956 Total Cases
• La Habra - 1663 Total Cases
• La Palma - 176 Total Cases
• Ladera Ranch - 195 Total Cases
• Laguna Beach - 257 Total Cases
• Laguna Hills - 355 Total Cases
• Laguna Niguel - 523 Total Cases
• Laguna Woods - 77 Total Cases
• Lake Forest - 948 Total Cases
• Los Alamitos - 232 Total Cases
• Midway City - 140 Total Cases
• Mission Viejo - 977 Total Cases
• Newport Beach - 1260 Total Cases
• Orange - 2800 Total Cases
• Placentia - 1067 Total Cases
• Rancho Mission Viejo - 79 Total Cases
• Rancho Santa Margarita - 399 Total Cases
• Rossmoor - 71 Total Cases
• San Clemente - 628 Total Cases
• San Juan Capistrano - 658 Total Cases
• Santa Ana - 11681 Total Cases
• Seal Beach - 313 Total Cases
• Silverado - 43 Total Cases
• Stanton - 729 Total Cases
• Trabuco Canyon - 225 Total Cases
• Tustin - 1484 Total Cases
• Villa Park - 65 Total Cases
• Westminster - 1196 Total Cases
• Yorba Linda - 853 Total Cases

Updated: 11/3/2020

City News Service, Patch Editor Ashley Ludwig contributed to this report.