'The Numbers Look Great': OC Could Reopen Further In April

ORANGE COUNTY, CA — Just 102 new cases of coronavirus were reported in Orange County on Monday, continuing some of the lowest trends the region has seen. If the county maintains this course, it could exit another reopening tier in early April, officials said.

One new death was recorded, but the resident died on Jan. 16.

The county is currently in the red or substantial tier, but it may be able to get into the moderate, orange tier by April 7, three days after Easter, Orange County CEO Frank Kim said last week. But new vaccine equity metrics set by the state could allow the county to graduate to that tier even sooner, as it did before.

That will hinge on whether the state makes its goal of 4 million inoculations in vulnerable ZIP codes by the beginning of April, Supervisor Lisa Bartlett said. The state's reopening plan is now tied to vaccine equity metrics, which allowed Orange County to move into the red tier on March 13.

"The numbers look great," said Andrew Noymer, a UC Irvine professor of population health and disease prevention.

Noymer said that he is often asked about varients and whether Californians should be worried about them. As of Friday, the state reported 8,494 known cases of different variants in California.

"They're worrisome and will happen sooner or later, but maybe not until next winter when most people are vaccinated and this is a big nothing," Noymer said." The numbers now look really, really good in Orange County and we should be happy about it."

He also said he was encouraged by the reports that a fourth vaccine may soon be authorized by the Food and Drug Administration, adding another arrow to the state's vaccine quiver.

"AstraZeneca being authorized is good — I'm all for it," he said.

SEE ALSO: Where To Get A Coronavirus Vaccine In Orange County

While there have been some reports of blood clotting in recipients in Europe, Noymer said it was rare. Officials said it is not connected to the vaccine but is a common symptom among the elderly.

"The blood-clotting issue is a mountain out of a molehill," Noymer said. "We're talking about very rare cases here so I'm not super worried."

As for the numbers themselves, hospitalizations increased from 187 Sunday to 195 on Monday as the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care increased from 43 to 50, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency.

The death toll so far this month is 50, and 496 for February. In January, the deadliest month of the pandemic, there have been 1,439 fatalities reported. In December, the runner-up for the deadliest month, there were 916 deaths recorded.

On Monday, the county had 34.7 percent of its ICU beds available, and 70 percent of its ventilators open. The OCHCA also reported 4,912 COVID-19 tests conducted Monday, raising the cumulative total to 3,254,316. The county is doing 312.9 tests per 100,000 people on a seven-day average with a seven-day lag. Its testing average mirrors the state average, Kim said.

The latest weekly update from the state, issued on Tuesday, showed the county's test positivity rate improved to 2.2% from 3.2% from the previous Tuesday, and the adjusted case rate per 100,000 people on a seven-day average with a seven-day lag improved from 6 to 4.

That puts the county just one-tenth of a point away from meeting the threshold for the orange tier for case rate.

As cases are steadily falling, vaccinations are on the rise statewide and in Orange County. But even though California still grapples with a major vaccine supply crisis, distribution has still been picking up speed.

The state has now administered more than 14 million doses, with more than 1,198,154 doses administered in Orange County as of Monday. Last week alone, the county administered around 220,300 vaccine doses, about three times the 76,000 administered the week before, the OC Business Journal reported.

There are more than 408,443 Orange County residents who have been fully vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna products and 21,936 residents who have received a Johnson & Johnson vaccine, according to county data.

The state looks to get just 1.8 million vaccines this week but Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state's worries about supply could be over by May.

"We're anticipating within 5 1/2 weeks, where we can eliminate all of the tiering, so to speak, and make available vaccines to everybody across the spectrum because supply will exponentially increase," he told reporters on Friday.

On Tuesday, county supervisors will consider whether to approve a memorandum of understanding with the state or Blue Shield on vaccine distribution. Kim said the county is may sign with Blue Shield since it will be easier to transition its Othena system to the insurance company's data-collection hub.

The City News Service and Patch editor Kat Schuster contributed to this report.