Dear President Trump

Dear Mr. President,

The news is getting worse and worse by the day. Today was quite a double whammy! We now have according to the John Hopkins coronavirus tracker (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 ) the distinction of being number 1, number 1, in worldwide confirmed cases (do I really trust the Chinese numbers, I am not sure but nonetheless this is nothing to dismiss.)

In addition, we learned earlier today that over 3.3 million Americans have filed for unemployment. That number actually dwarfs the numbers during the 2008-2009 recession. And of course, it doesn’t include all those who are self-employed and cannot file for unemployment. A much larger number today than during the recession. Do you really believe that all those people will be rehired or able to support themselves by Easter? Yes, they may still go and fill the churches but they won’t be there out of joy they will be there for the comfort that at moments like these only religion can provide.

If you really think that the best thing is to reopen the country for Easter, please go ahead and do so. It won't be the people who understand and apply science in their daily lives who will die, it will be your followers who deluded by your magnificence will as you have alluded to allow themselves to be shot by you. Or those in desperate circumstances that no longer really care what the outcome is. But is that really what you want to do? I thought you wanted to win in November. Ensuring that 5-10% of your voters die before they cast their votes for you is no way to win an election.

The fact is that the Imperial College report ( https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf ) clearly states:

“The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. “

Bold is mine: 18 months! November is slightly over eight months away. Over three million people are now desperate and probably going to have to take jobs on what to do are the frontlines namely Amazon delivery and supermarket stocking such as at chains like Safeway.

Most experts are expecting at least another month of increasingly worse numbers. In any case, the Imperial College report continues:

“We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.”

Even China, five months into the process, is now closing its borders due to a fear of reinfection from the outside. We are barely one month into testing and identifying how the virus is beginning to move through our population. Do you really want the virus coming back in October just as people are starting to vote? I wouldn’t think so but maybe you know better.

Later in the paper they suggest:

“In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months….. 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.”

And that doesn’t even account for deaths due to unemployment or underemployment, surely the next wave.

One last quick thought: I would also suggest you reconsider who your friends are. Is Fox TV really your friend? Murdock cancelled his birthday party:

“But one elderly Fox News viewer, a crucial supporter of President Trump, took the threat seriously: The channel’s chairman, Rupert Murdoch, who was to celebrate his 89th birthday on March 11.

On March 8, as the virus was spreading, the Murdoch family called off a planned party out of concern for the patriarch’s health, according to a person familiar with the cancellation. There were about 20 people on the guest list.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/media/fox-news-coronavirus-rupert-murdoch.html

They know the danger is real. So why would the network claim that you need to reopen the country for economic reasons? Maybe they aren’t really as supportive as you think. Maybe they don’t want you to get re-elected. When you assume that, all of a sudden their calls to reopen the economy make sense. Let your supporters die and you won’t get reelected. You really ought to start thinking through what your supposed advisors are blaring at you. They may not be the supporters you thought they were.

Take care, Mr. President, your decisions today could make a big difference in November. I am sure you recognize that.

Sincerely,

Tania Sole