Democratic Party Fails To Nudge Out Candidates In CA Governor's Race — The Crowded Field Is Set

SACRAMENTO, CA — With Democratic gubernatorial candidates in danger of splitting the vote and handing a win to Republicans in the June primary, only one contender heeded Democratic Chair Rusty Hicks' surprising plea to drop out this week.

The filing period closed Friday, and the official field of candidates is set at 10 with two Republicans and eight Democrats.

Only former Assembly Member Ian Calderon dropped out of the race and threw his support behind Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Castro Valley.

Based on current polling and statistical modeling by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell, there is currently a 25 percent chance Democrats could split the vote, sending the two Republicans to the November general election in one of the bluest states in the nation.

The Democratic contenders are:

• Xavier Becerra, former California attorney general
• Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor
• Katie Porter, former Orange County representative
• Tom Steyer, billionaire
• Swalwell, Bay Area representative
• Tony Thurmond, state superintendent of public instruction
• Antonio Villaraigosa, former mayor of Los Angeles
• Betty Yee, former state controller

The Republican contenders are:

• Chad Bianco, Riverside County sheriff
• Steve Hilton, Fox News contributor

On Tuesday, Hicks urged his party's crowded field of candidates to reconsider their candidacy if they don't have a real shot at winning.

In an open letter aimed at the Democratic contenders, Hicks nudged them to "assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign" by the filing deadline Friday.

“I believe it starts with a candid assessment of the political landscape around you, an honest reflection on your viability to win the race and the courage to make a tough choice,” he wrote.

His plea fell on deaf ears. Several candidates officially filed paperwork to enter the race despite running at the bottom of the pack in the polls.

In the open letter, Hicks countered speculation that two Republican candidates — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton — could shut Democrats out of the gubernatorial election in November.

"Despite the ongoing chatter, the likelihood of two Republicans effectively 'locking out' California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low. However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible, and I know we are collectively committed to taking the steps required to avoid that possibility," Hicks wrote.

It's been two decades since a Republican won a statewide election in the Golden State. However, too many Democratic candidates in the primary could risk splitting the party's vote.

Emerson College polls in December and February showed Hilton in the lead, followed by Bianco and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell in a tie for second. The strong GOP showing set off speculation that Republican candidates could win the top two seats in the state's open primary, shutting Democrats out of the general election.

A poll published last month by the Public Policy Institute of California also showed Bianco and Hilton with double-digit support for governor. On the Democratic side, former Rep. Katie Porter, Swalwell, and hedge fund founder Tom Steyer were also in the lead.

Hicks didn't call out any specific Democratic candidates in his open letter.

"I recognize my suggestions are hard for many to contemplate and may be even viewed as overly harsh by some," he wrote.

The letter did, in fact, trigger backlash. Thurmond, one of the few minority contenders, accused the party of discouraging people of color to stay in the race.

"Our political system is rigged, corrupted by the political elites, the wealthy and well connected," he said on X. "The California Democratic Party is essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out."

The contentious California governor's race has been rife with speculation and rumors about who could potentially succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, including former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who chose not to run.

Newsom, who strongly campaigned for the California redistricting measure Proposition 50, has been widely considered a possible contender in the 2028 presidential election. Newsom has not announced his plans after his second term as governor expires.

"California’s leadership on the world stage is significantly harder if a Democrat is not elected as our next Governor," Hicks wrote.