El Nino Looks Like a Late Bloomer

It was billed as the Godzilla El Niño, and we were warned to brace ourselves for flooding, mudslides, and downpours of biblical proportions.

But December ended with downtown Los Angeles at less than 30 percent of the monthly average rainfall level.

So far in January, Southern California had one good week of rainfall, but it’s still below average without any significant rain in the seven-day forecast. A little further to north along the Central Coast and Bay Area, it’s been a little wetter with communities fairly close to the monthly average. More storms are predicted to soak communities such as Pleasanton throughout the week.

But ‘Godzilla El Niño?’ It’s been more like ‘El Niño no show.’

“We could have certainly had more rainfall to date, but the fact we haven’t had big rain storms isn’t alarming yet,” said Robbie Munroe, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service. “It’s not surprising us per se.”

El Niño may just be a late bloomer. There is still more than enough time in the season for El Niño to provide some drought relief, said Munroe.

“There is some concern, but there would be a lot more concern if we get to the end of this month and there isn’t anything on the horizon,” added Munroe.

That’s because El Niño — a weather pattern that begins with warming waters in the Pacific Ocean and carries with it the threat of severe weather and natural disasters — typically brings the most rainfall in late January through March. February is when things get really interesting in southern and central California.

It was February in 1998 , during California’s strongest El Niño, when Southern California was drenched with 14 inches of rain, roughly a year’s worth of rain in one month.

“I recommend some patience over the next couple weeks,” Munroe said.

While El Niño’s rainfall has so far been unimpressive in California, other atmospheric indicators show that this year’s El Niño remains very strong.

A National Weather Service progress report on El Niño released last week indicated, “El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months... The seasonal outlooks for January - March indicate an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States.”

In fact, some recent oceanic indicators show elements of the current El Niño at higher levels than the largest two in history.

“We just entered the period when we see peek impacts over North America,” said Mike Alpert, Deputy Director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

“During the beginning of January, Southern California got a taste of what’s likely to come later on,” said Monterey station National Weather Service Forecaster Diana Henderson. At the start of the New Year, wide swaths of the region experienced heavy rain, hail, snow, minor mudslides in burn areas.

“Wait until Feburary,” added Henderson. “It’s not over yet.”

Photo: Jennifer Cook