San Clemente Home Prices Disappoint Sellers, Thrill Buyers

The local real estate market is looking “good, bad and ugly” lately, depending on whether you’re a seller or buyer.

But first, some quick numbers:

San Clemente’s median home price came in at $592,500 in June, according to data from local Realtors’ SoCal Multiple Listing Service.

This is about a 5 percent drop from last June.

Closed sales volume in June registered 88 homes, up 2 percent from last June’s 86 homes. Nothing sluggish about volume.

But only 52 new San Clemente escrows opened in June – 38 percent fewer than June 2010. Although this could mean that local “buy decisions” have slowed, it’s probably too early to draw that conclusion. The “new escrows” numbers vary wildly from month to month.

Other June statistics show a robust San Clemente market:

• 106 average days on market, 7 percent lower than a year ago.
• 73 average days in escrow, 19 percent lower than a year ago.
• 125 new listings, down 18 percent from June last year.
• 391 homes in the “for sale” inventory, 13 percent lower than a year ago.
• 5.6 months of supply, down 11 percent from a year ago.

The one statistic that continues to trouble home sellers – and delight home buyers – is the declining median or average market price.

So let’s talk about the good, the bad and the ugly market prices from the viewpoint of sellers:

The good (relatively speaking): Prices are no longer dropping like an anvil through water as they did from late 2007 to late 2009.  The median San Clemente home lost over 1 percent in market value every month between December 2007 and December 2009. In the last 18 months, prices have been flat to moderately down, depending on the neighborhood.

The bad: Prices are not going up. Flat prices seem to be here to stay, at least for a while, and it’s hard to imagine what economic or political development might help them go up anytime soon.

The ugly: Market prices are back to 2003 levels. If you bought before 2003, your home is probably worth at least 20 percent more than you paid for it. If you bought before 1999, you have at least doubled your market value. But if you bought between 2004 and 2008, your market value has likely suffered a drop between 20 percent and 33 percent. The accompanying chart shows how San Clemente’s median price has performed in the last dozen years.

Of course, from the point of view of buyers, the good, the bad and the ugly are simply reversed. And don’t forget that these issues are somewhat neutralized for those who are selling one home and buying another at about the same time.

Keep in mind that every neighborhood is its own market. In San Clemente, older neighborhoods west of the freeway have performed better than newer inland neighborhoods.

For more of the latest market news and statistics on San Clemente real estate, visit my blog at MCotter.com.