California Governor's Race Heats Up

LOS ANGELES, CA —California residents will vote in less than 10 weeks in the June 5 primary election of California’s next governor. It’s been a rough and tumble race, and one candidate is surging in the polls.

Anything can happen over the next two months, but at this point, it’s shaping up to be a race of left and lefter, with Democratic Lt Governor Gavin Newsom holding a commanding lead in the polls followed by former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Thanks to California’s open primaries, the only way voters will see the GOP on the November ballot is if Republicans John Cox and State Sen. Travis Allen pull off a come-from-behind upset, a possibility given the sheer number of Democratic candidates dividing up the liberal vote. If a Republican fails to be among the top two vote-getters June 5th, it would be the first time California had a one-party governor’s race.

A Survey USA election poll released this week has Newsom polling in the lead with 22 percent of the vote followed by Villaraigosa at 14 percent, Cox at 11 percent, Democrat State Treasurer John Chiang at 9 percent, and Allen at 7 percent.

Survey USA diced up the candidates’ support bases, noting, “Newsom's support is old, wealthy, liberal and concentrated in the Bay Area (where, in a field with dozens of candidates, the former mayor of San Francisco gets 41% of the vote). Villaraigosa's support is moderate, female, minority, working class and concentrated in greater Los Angeles. Cox's support is white, male, conservative, high-school educated, and concentrated in the Inland Empire.”

But if there is anything 2016 taught us, it’s: don’t trust the polls. There are a myriad of unpredictable factors at play this year. Conventional wisdom has pegged 2018 a wave year with progressive and democratic voters turning out in waves as a referendum on President Donald Trump, but how motivated will they be in the June 5 primary? And if liberal California voters chafing at the Trump presidency are extraordinarily motivated, then what of the state’s conservative pockets, where voters chafe at the antagonism California’s liberal leadership bears Trump? This week, conservative Orange County mounted a robust rebellion against the state’s so-called sanctuary law, proving California’s Republicans are rallying.

Never-the-less, California appears poised to choose between two well-known, famously flawed Democrats come November. Both Newsom and Villaraigosa bring with them baggage from their time as mayors of the state’s two largest cities in the form of extra-marital affairs. Newsom admitted to an affair with a City Hall aid who was married to his campaign manager, and Villaraigosa’s marriage ended when his affair with a television reporter was exposed.

Regardless, Newsom has held a consistent and commanding lead since February, and his opponents took notice, concentrating their jabs on him as the frontrunner.

In the first debate, Newsom touted the Bay area’s top-performing schools only to be accused by Villaraigosa of failing to meet the needs of the region’s African American students. He also criticized Newsom’s track record for protecting immigrant communities living in fear of deportation.

At the same time, the Republican candidates slammed the Democrats for their opposition to the president’s deportation policies.

"All of the Democrats want to deflect from the true issue, which is illegal immigration," Allen said at the first debate."We must secure our borders, we must ensure that we are never a sanctuary state and we must ensure that California enforces federal immigration law."

Undeterred, the Democratic frontrunners were eager to establish themselves as bulwarks against the Trump agenda.

"He was calling Mexicans rapists and criminals. He was going after Muslims. He was comparing white supremacists with people protesting racism in our country. How can I work with him? With great difficulty, obviously," Villaraigosa said, according to KPCC.

Similarly, Newsom released a video on Twitter last month, tearing into the president and positioning his candidacy as part of the resistance.

"Together, let's keep pushing (Trump's) hate out of our state," he added.

Villaraigosa is hitting Newsom hard on his record of cooperating with immigration officials as San Francisco mayor. He used Newsom’s decision to skip upcoming debates as a springboard to attack his credibility with immigrant communities.

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"Gavin Newsom clearly doesn't want to explain why he started a policy that turned over undocumented youth to ICE agents, or why he won’t release his 2016 tax returns, or what taxes he will raise to pay the $400 billion that [single-payer healthcare] will cost California taxpayers," said Luis Vizcaino, a spokesman for Villaraigosa told the Los Angeles Times.

Your deadline to register to vote in the gubernatorial primary is May 21. You can register to vote here.

Primary Election Day is June 5. You can find your polling place through your county's elections website. Midterm Election Day is Nov. 6.

Photo: LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 15: Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa attends the LA Promise Fund's 'Girls Build Leadership Summit' at The Los Angeles Convention Center on December 15, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Lt. Governor of California Gavin Newsom attends the Re-Opening of the Curran Theater with the Tony Award Winning Best Musical 'Fun Home' on January 26, 2017 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Steve Jennings/Getty Images for Curran)