MARIN COUNTY, CA — Marin County is preparing for a potentially severe winter as a strengthening El Niño raises concerns about flooding, atmospheric rivers, king tides and other hazards that could combine to create dangerous conditions.
County public safety officials will present their El Niño readiness strategy to the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday outlining preparations already underway and steps residents can take before winter storms arrive.
The preparations come as El Niño has strengthened considerably in the Pacific. NOAA said in July that the climate pattern was expected to continue strengthening through the end of 2026, with a 97 percent chance of persisting into early spring 2027.
NOAA's longer-range outlook has since put the chance of a very strong El Niño during October through December at 81 percent.
Forecasters have been watching the developing event for months amid indications that it could rank among the strongest El Niños on record. But the strength of El Niño alone does not guarantee that California will experience an exceptionally wet winter.
In Marin, officials are particularly concerned about what could happen when several weather and coastal hazards occur at once.
During a recent town hall hosted by state Sen. Mike McGuire, Dr. Sophia Merrifield of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said the combination of El Niño and the timing of king tides could result in "likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast associated with this event," according to the county.
Marin has miles of roads bordering San Francisco Bay, the Pacific Ocean and other waterways that could become flooded and impassable under the worst conditions.
Officials stressed that El Niño does not guarantee any individual severe storm. Instead, it can increase the potential for damaging conditions when combined with atmospheric rivers, king tides, high winds, saturated soil and storm surge.
"Preparedness is a shared and essential responsibility. Don't wait for the first atmospheric river to think about your disaster readiness," said Steven Torrence, Marin County Office of Emergency Management director. "We can't predict how this winter will unfold, but we can prepare for the wide range of possibilities."
The county's preparations include evaluating temporary flood-control measures and developing plans for responding to coastal, bay, creek and roadway flooding.
Officials are also planning emergency exercises involving county departments, cities and towns, first responders, public works agencies and utilities. The county said it is working with the National Weather Service and applying lessons learned from recent California floods to improve forecasting, decision-making and communication.
Residents are being encouraged to prepare now by clearing gutters and drains, trimming vegetation, servicing pumps, reviewing family emergency plans and refreshing emergency supply kits.
The Board of Supervisors will hear the county's full readiness strategy Tuesday morning at the Marin County Civic Center.
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