Valley's Top Economist Will Deliver Forecast on Friday

Economist William H. Roberts, PhD., won’t have good news to report during VICA’s 23^rd Annual Business Forecast Conference but he will have a message . . . make a decision!

“Until Washington, Sacramento and the city of Los Angeles figure out what they’re going to do on a government level and transmit a clear message, economic recovery is going to be slower,” Roberts said recently.

But he added, “Given that we’re in a presidential election, I don’t see any real decisions being made for over a year.”

Roberts, an economics professor at CSU, Northridge and Director of the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Centers, will be one of the three forecast panelists opening VICA’s conference. The event at the Universal Hilton Hotel will also feature breakout sessions on tourism, real estate, technology and the flight of businesses from California.

That session, entitled “Last One Out, Get the Lights,” will include a speaker from Sugarland, Texas, who, according to VICA president Stuart Waldman, “essentially walks into business meetings, pulls out a checkbook and asks, ‘What can I do for you?’ ”

Waldman said those attending the conference will receive economic predictions and information to better equip them to run their businesses and government.

“Generally, business people are looking for someone to tell them to spend money, hire people and grow their business; that it’s OK to start over again,” Waldman said. “In many cases, they don’t always hear that.”

They may not hear it from Roberts, who releases the Center’s annual Economic Forecast Survey and provides real estate updates, along with quarterly and monthly information at www.csun.edu/sfverc.

Currently, the San Fernando Valley has three strikes against recovery, Roberts said. They include the lack of any independent industries that would buffer the Valley from the general economic problems felt by the rest of the country. Instead, the Valley is simply a microcosm of the nation.

Secondly, previous recoveries were spurred by housing construction, as in after World War II. But the current downturn was caused, in part, by overbuilding and much more housing exists than can be used, he said.

Finally, the downturn in housing prices has cut off a source of funding that Valley entrepreneurs previously used to start their businesses – home equity.

“We had a segment of the aerospace industry and when they moved out of Los Angeles, we had a huge entrepreneurial thrust from people who left aerospace and started up their own businesses,” Roberts said.

The economic downturn in the 1990s occurred over five to six years, a much slower pace that enabled business owners to borrow on their homes and start companies. By contrast the recent housing downturn occurred in little more than 18 months, leaving homeowners with no ability to finance new ventures, he said.

But, Roberts added that the economy is recovering, although at an extremely slow rate, hence the need for some sort of help. Whether that should come from reduced taxes and other incentives to enable businesses to move forward or an infusion of cash from the government for infrastructure and programs that increase productivity, Roberts says he’s in the middle.

“I don’t’ think it matters which way we go, as long as we send a clear message,” he said.

Information about “The Big Economy That Should,” The Valley Industry and Commerce Association’s 23^rd Annual Business Forecast Conference is at www.vica.com.