California Governor's Race Gets Weird

LOS ANGELES, CA — In case you haven’t been paying attention, the race for governor is getting a little weird with just eight days left until the June 5 primary, which has the potential to decide the race months before the actual November election.

If the polls are to be believed, Gavin Newsom has a lock on the lead going into the June 5 primary election in the race to be California’s governor. That makes the June 5 election a race for second place between former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and businessman John Cox, the leading Republican.

If Villaraigosa wins the race for second, then the increasingly costly and bitter battle between two Democrats will drag on through to the November election. If Cox wins, Newsom can expect to coast in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 45 percent to 25 percent.

That may be why the Newsom team turned heads recently with an ad campaign that would seem to help Cox with Republican voters more than it hurts. Supporters of Villaraigosa, in turn, have thrown their support behind Cox’s Republican rival in hopes of dividing the conservative vote and squeaking out a second-place finish.

“It’s a close race for second. I think Cox and Villaraigosa are fighting it out,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. “Newsom is trying to help cox come in second. If it is a Republican, the election is over.”

Frenemies

It’s not unusual for the leading candidate like Newsom to attack the opponent nipping at his heels. But in painting Cox as a bonafide conservative, Newsom’s camp seems to be helping Cox by shoring up his support among Republicans.

An ad by Citizens Supporting Gavin Newsom for Governor ties Cox to the NRA and to President Donald Trump’s tax cut and border security agenda, a series of stances that don’t exactly repel Republican voters. The strategy seems to be working. Cox has surged past Villaraigosa in a series of recent polls.

“The idea of choosing your own opponent is old, and I’ve got to tell you in a situation where you have an open primary it becomes easier,” John Nienstedt, a pollster with Competitive Edge Research and Communication told The San Diego Union-Tribune. “He built Cox up by portraying him as someone who works in concert with Trump and opposes gun control. That’s more than a dog whistle, that’s a screamer.”

Indeed, the strategy hasn’t gone unnoticed among Villaraigosa’s supporters, who filed a complaint against the group claiming it failed to properly disclose its efforts to help Cox, according to the Los Angeles Times.

At the same time, the independent pro-charter group Families and Teachers for Antonio Villaraigosa, is sending out flyers supporting Cox’s main Rival Assemblyman Travis Allen along with Robert Newman, a Republican farmer trending low in the polls.

One flyer, which was sent to Republican voters, features a picture of Allen and his family standing in front of an antique warplane with the line, “Our flag and national anthem unite us as Americans. This California family doesn’t kneel.” Another flyer by the same group paints Cox, as a liberal.

Cox’s supporters, in turn, filed a complaint against the pro-Villaraigosa.

“It’s been absolutely strange,” Tim Rosales, Cox’s campaign manager told the Union-Tribune.

The Polling

The Republican vote is divided between Cox and Travis Allen, who is running fourth overall in most polls. The state Republican party hasn’t endorsed one candidate over the other, but Cox recently scored an endorsement from Trump, a sign that Republicans are seeking to coalesce around one candidate.

A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California has Newsom sitting comfortably out front with 25 percent of the vote, Cox surging with 19 percent and Villaraigosa with 15 percent of likely voters.

A USC/Los Angeles Times poll has Allen pulling in 11 percent, State Treasurer John Chiang with 9 percent, and former state schools chief Delaine Eastin had 6 percent.

The Money

The candidates' spending tells a partial story of what’s really going on in the race for governor. Newsom has outgunned the rest of the field so far spending $13,421,177.51, and he still has $9,774,884.80 on hand as of May 19. Villaraigosa, who seemed to be in second place for most of the year has spent $7,150,259.85 and has $2,231,811.73. Cox spent $4,206,305.99, but he ends the race with a mere $124,017.52 in his war chest, according to his most recent campaign finance filing. Allen spent $1,110,445.64, and he has $37,539.66 left to fight with.

But, perhaps, the real story of this race is the sheer amount of money wealthy donors and unions are funneling into independent groups with no limit on campaign donations. According to the Los Angeles Times, such groups have already spent $26 million. Pro-charter school backers — including Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings, Michael Bloomberg and Eli Broad — have spent nearly $16 million to help Villaraigosa, according to the Times. In turn, the California Teachers Association gave more than $1 million to support Newsom along with the Service Employees International Union, which gave more than $3 million, the Times reported.

Ho-Hum

When it comes to the issues, there is little to separate the top Democratic contenders from each other. Ditto for the top two Republicans.

“The Democratic candidates are perceived to be alike in their policies. There is not a lot at stake. Their policies differ in nuanced ways. They support higher a minimum wage, expanded healthcare, and environmental protection,” said UCLA’s Yaroslavsky. “This election is more about who is going to carry the mantle. You don’t have three Democrats with fundamental differing visions.”

If the Democratic battle is a fight between the liberal wing of the party supporting Newsom, and the moderate wing supporting Villaraigosa, then the Republican battle is about Trump.

Little in the way of policy separates Cox and Allen, who both support tax cuts and increased border security. Both are against increased gun control. Allen has sought to differentiate himself by touting his early support for Trump while pointing out that Cox didn’t vote for the president. (Get Patch real-time email alerts for the latest news from your California neighborhood. Also, download the free Patch iPhone app or free Patch Android app. Also, be sure to follow your local Patch on Facebook!)

But it’s Cox who has Trump’s endorsement.

"California finally deserves a great Governor, one who understands borders, crime and lowering taxes. John Cox is the man — he'll be the best Governor you've ever had," Trump tweeted earlier this month. “I fully endorse John Cox for Governor and look forward to working with him to Make California Great Again!”

If the rate of absentee ballot voting so far turned in is any indication, voters are saving their excitement for the November midterms, Yaroslavsky said.

"It doesn’t look like there is a whole lot of energy out there. The (Democratic voting) wave is going to be in November, not in the primary,” Yaroslavsky said. “It’s ho-hum for a lot of folks who don’t live and breathe this stuff.”

Photos: California Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom on November 19, 2012 in Beverly Hills, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)

California Democratic gubernatroial candidate and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa on June 6, 2017 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

John Cox, on August 3, 2004 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)