Election 2016: Is California Suddenly in Play?

Since declaring her candidacy in April, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has visited Los Angeles nine times, but on Thursday, something was different.

In between fundraisers, Clinton took part in a hastily thrown-together community forum. It came the day after her rival Sen. Bernie Sanders hosted somewhat impromptu rallies in Los Angeles and San Diego. Before the start of this helter skelter election season, conventional wisdom held that the nominations for both parties would be locked up well before Californians cast their ballots. Thus, candidates from both parties spent the majority of the year popping quickly in and out of the state to fill their coffers but not to stump for votes. So used to this dynamic, locals this week were slow to process what they were seeing: the candidates were campaigning.

This week, Sanders admitted to the Los Angeles Times editorial board that he considers California essential, adding: "You're going to see me here more than you feel comfortable with."

GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, too, is holding his California campaign event in Temecula this weekend..

So why is the long-neglected most populous state in the nation suddenly in play? Math.

If Trump were to lose delegate rich California, it would go a long way toward pulling off the brokered convention that his trailing rivals and Republican party leaders are hoping for.

For Bernie Sanders, it’s a must-win in his increasingly long-shot strategy to overcome the delegate lead Clinton built in winning the southern states by large margins.

A poll released this week by the Public Policy Institute of California gives four candidates reason for hope.

In a poll of likely voters, Clinton leads Sanders 48 percent to his 41. However, 4 percent of the voters polled say they are undecided, and the poll has a margin of error greater than 3 percent. After Tuesday’s loss in Arizona, a Sanders’ campaign spokesman told reporters that his chances of winning the nomination hinge on a come-from-behind win in California.

The Clinton campaign, which once had reason to consider California locked up, isn’t taking the threat lightly with Clinton holding forums at Stanford University and Los Angeles this week.

It’s Sanders’ advantage among white men, young voters and Independents that gives him cause for hope in California. However, Clinton has a stronghold on a coalition of women, minority and older voters that make up a majority of Democrats in California.

On the Republican side, Trump appears to have a solid lead despite his poor showing with Hispanic voters. But the poll does show a path to victory for Sen. Ted Cruz. Among likely voters, Trump leads the pack with 38 percent. Cruz, his is closest rival, has support from 27 percent, giving him a slim but fighting chance in California.

The challenge for Cruz is that Trump leads in every demographic category, giving Cruz few openings to win over enough California voters.

"Not only is Cruz behind, but there is no obvious strategy as to who he can target or where he can target," Bruce Cain, director of Stanford University's Bill Lane Center for the American West told the San Jose Mercury News.

Pouring enormous amounts of money into a statewide attack on Trump, might be Cruz’s best bet Cain added.

Related:

• UPDATED: Hillary Clinton to Hit the Hollywood Club Scene
• Bernie Sanders to Campaign in San Diego Tuesday
• Hillary Clinton to Speak at Stanford Wednesday
• Sanders to Rally Supporters in Los Angeles Today
• Trump Support Rally Planned in Temecula This Weekend
• UPDATED: 'Alliances not Bluster' Make U.S. Safer, Hillary Clinton Tells LA Crowd