The Kavanaugh Effect And California's Midterms

LOS ANGELES, CA — With America collectively recoiling from the gut punch of this week’s Supreme Court hearings, you might be forgiven for forgetting about the midterms momentarily, but the Nov. 6 election is barreling toward us.

And the rest of America hasn’t forgotten. According to a new series of polls from the likes of Gallup and the Pew Research Center, a whopping 61 percent of registered voters are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the midterms. Supreme Court appointments now tops the list of issues important to midterm voters.

And while the hearing thrust the politics of sexual violence front and center they also put one California race in the spotlight. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, was a pivotal and controversial figure in the hearings, and her role seems to be taking a toll in her fight for re-election.

The confirmation of Supreme Court Nominee Brett Kavanaugh seemed like a sure thing earlier this month before news leaked of a letter sent to Feinstein by a woman, Professor Christine Blasey Ford, accusing the judge of sexual assault. Feinstein forwarded the letter to the FBI but did not go public with it. Many of her fellow Democrats were furious with her for not sharing the letter, which she said she kept private out of respect for Ford’s wish to remain anonymous. Her opponent in the Senate re-election race, state Sen. Kevin de León derided her style as too passive when California needs someone willing to do fierce battle with the Trump agenda.

“You can’t abide by the old country club rules of the Senate, which (Feinstein) has been doing for the past two decades,” de León told the San Francisco Chronicle. “That may have worked two decades ago, but it surely doesn’t work today.”

Republicans, too, were furious at Feinstein. That fury boiled over during Thursday’s hearings when GOP senators found themselves unable to rail at Ford and instead focused their ire on Feinstein. They accused her of railroading the committee by leaking the accusations just before Kavanaugh’s confirmation and the midterms. Feinstein denied any knowledge of the leak, remained one of the more subdued senators throughout the hearing and negotiated with Republican Sen. Jeff Flake for his support in delaying the confirmation vote one week to give the FBI time to investigate the allegations.

Feinstein’s high-profile role in the spectacle may be taking a toll on her poll numbers. She maintains a 40 percent to 29 percent lead over de León, but he managed to cut her lead in half since July, according to a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

The extraordinary Supreme Court hearings are likely to impact the Congressional races as well, but it remains too soon to predict precisely how. If Kavanaugh isn’t confirmed, then Republican and Democratic voters alike may be motivated to get out and vote with the fate of the Supreme Court on the line.

Republicans, already bleeding support from female voters in every poll, may pay a price for supporting a nominee accused of sexual assault.

According to the Los Angeles Times, a USC Dornsife poll this week found women now favor the Democrats by 28 percentage points, 62% to 34%, among likely voters nationwide. The poll shows Democrats with a huge edge among suburban women, and Republicans saw their edge with married white women drop from 51% to 46%. That could spell trouble for Republicans in California’s seven most competitive Congressional races most of which dot suburban Southern California districts.

In Orange County’s 48th District, where longtime Republican Dana Rohrabacher is facing the tightest race of his career, he inserted himself into the thick of the thorny debate. According to the Times, he ridiculed the allegations against Kavanaugh at a campaign event that was recorded and put out by by Talking Points Memo.

“This guy who’s going to be our Supreme Court justice — and he better be our Supreme Court judge — he’s a perfect candidate. And what do they say? ‘Well, in high school you did this.’ High school? Give me a break.”

Harley Rouda, his Democratic rival, was quick to pounce, tweeting, “Dana Rohrabacher’s reaction to Dr. Ford’s allegations was an attempt to discredit and minimize her experience even before she had spoken in public. Thank you Dr. Ford for your courage. It’s incredibly selfless to put your life on display under intense scrutiny.”

Voters may not know the outcome of the Supreme Court battle before they cast their votes. Vote by mail begins Oct. 8 in California. Patch will have complete reports on the major statewide elections and ballot measures leading up to the Nov. 6. Election. In the meantime, here are the key dates to mark on your calendar:

Key Dates

There are several statewide races on the Nov. 6 ballot including 11 measures, governor, senator and dozens of House races. The California Secretary of State released its Nov. 6 Voter Guide here.

Your deadline to register to vote is Oct. 22, 2018. You can register to vote here.

Your vote by mail request must be postmarked by Oct. 30. You can apply here to vote by mail.

Election Day is Nov. 6. You can find your polling place through your county's elections website. Polls open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Elections Department opens from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. for registering and voting by mail. Vote-by-mail ballot envelopes must be signed and postmarked on or before this day. Voters can drop their vote-by-mail ballot at the Elections Department or any polling place by 8 p.m

Photo: SEPTEMBER 28: Activists and advocates for survivors of sexual abuse gather to protest the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh on September 28. The Senate Judiciary Committee voted out Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh and agreed to an additional week of investigation into accusations of sexual assault against him before the full Senate votes on his confirmation. Yesterday the Senate Judiciary Committee heard testimony from Christine Blasey Ford who has accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when they were both teens. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)