Republican Midterm Bloodbath In California Finally Ends

LOS ANGELES, CA — Three weeks after the midterms, the nation’s only remaining undecided race was called this week with Democratic challenger TJ Cox pulling off an upset victory over Republican Rep. David Valadao in California’s 21st District.

At the end of the day, Democrats flipped 40 House seats nationwide, the party’s biggest coup since the Watergate scandal. In California, it was a political bloodbath for Republicans, who lost seven long-held seats and saw their delegation in the House of Representatives cut in half. Now Republicans hold just seven of the state’s 53 seats. Democrats won every statewide office and hold a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature.

What Happened?

President Donald Trump happened. While several of the Southern California districts that flipped seemed to be gradually heading from right to left in recent years thanks to changing demographics, Trump’s divisive rhetoric appears to have hastened the shift.

On the eve of the election, Trump told voters to vote as if it was his name on the ballot. That was a toxic proposition in California, where Hillary Clinton carried all seven of the districts that flipped this month.

"As one of the most polarizing figures in modern U.S. politics, Trump really did set the table for the potential blue wave that eventually swept the state. He gave Democrats and the Democratic Party here an historic opportunity and they exploited it to the fullest," Mark DiCamillo, director of the UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies poll told CalMatters.

The president’s approval rating was underwater in every district that flipped in California.

"There was this extremely strong correlation between how voters were rating the job that President Trump was doing as president and who they were supporting in their district for Congress," DiCamillo added.

While Democrats targeted about eight seats considered competitive, actually flipping seven seats seemed like a stretch going into election night. Indeed, as votes were tallied after polls closed Nov. 6, most Republican incumbents were in the lead. Cox trailed Valadao by several thousand votes when election night came to a close. Other Republican incumbents such as Orange County’s Mimi Walters also held solid leads. But as the days and weeks wore on, those leads slipped. That’s because more people than ever voted by mail this year. And, as is consistently the case, Republicans voted early at higher rates whereas more Democrats mailed in ballots on election day. In California, ballots received up to three days after election day are still counted. As a result, the final ballots to be counted skewed heavily Democratic. That is why Cox, who ended election night down by 4,440 votes, pulled off a victory this week with a margin of 529 votes.

What’s Next?

Though a blue wave was widely predicted, few thought so many Republican incumbents would lose their seats in California.

“Everybody knew it would be competitive,” Kurt Bardella, a former aide to Rep. Darrell Issa said of the climate for California’s GOP lawmakers, “but I don’t think anybody anticipated they’d be wiped out” he told the Los Angeles Times.

Issa, whose set to retire, saw his seat turn over to Democratic newcomer Mike Levin. The district is one of four Orange County seats to flip this election season, leaving the famously conservative region bereft of any Republican Congressional representatives. That could have serious implications for the party. Orange County isn’t important just because it reliably voted conservative for decades. More importantly, it supplied deep-pocketed donors for the party. Every viable Republican presidential nominee in recent years has held one or more fundraisers in Orange County. The region could be counted on for votes, for money and a strong Republican infrastructure that propelled local legislators to powerful committee posts and produced a steady pipeline of promising GOP candidates for higher office. It remains to be seen just what kind of blow these midterm losses dealt to the local party's infrastructure in the long run.

The GOP leadership, however, is cautioning its members not to overstate the loss. Though Democrats gained seven seats, many of the races were close. It’s far from a sure thing that Democrats could keep the seats especially after Trump is out of office.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy, The Republican Majority leader from Bakersfield, is on the defensive for spearheading a strategy - allegiance to the Trump administration — that backfired in California.
He issued a statement acknowledging the work to be done and opportunities to regain lost ground.

“There is no question there is work to be done after these election results and we intend to grow,” McCarthy told the Times, emphasising the need to “strengthening our homeland” and national security.

Photo: FULLERTON, CA - OCTOBER 04: Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (C) stands with congressional candidates Mike Levin (CA-49), L, Harley Rouda (CA-48), 2nd L, Katie Porter (CA-45), 3rd L, TJ Cox (CA-21), 2nd R, and Gil Cisneros (CA-39), R, at a 2018 midterm elections rally on October 4, 2018 in Fullerton, California. The event, at California State University, Fullerton, was held for five California Democratic congressional candidates, who would all go on to win. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)