What Connecticut's Summer Weather Could Look Like This Year

As schools begin winding down for the year and temperatures continue to climb across Connecticut, many residents are looking ahead to summer. But what kind of weather can they expect?

Meteorological summer began on June 1, and with it the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its updated outlook for the months ahead.

Subscribe

NOAA's forecast favors above-normal temperatures across the Northeast this summer, while also leaning toward wetter-than-normal conditions, though forecasters say confidence in the outlook remains limited.

NOAA's summer outlook favors above-normal temperatures and slightly wetter-than-normal conditions across the Northeast. (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)

Forecasters can't predict specific temperatures or rainfall probabilities months out, but they can make general predictions on temperature and precipitation trends in a given season.

They base outlooks on several climatological observations, trends and computer models.

A developing El Niño on the horizon and decades-long climate trends influenced NOAA's outlook for June, July and August, according to Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with NOAA's Extended Prediction Division.

"El Niño is likely to emerge soon and there is a 90 percent chance of El Niño conditions during the June through August timeframe," Pugh said.

Pugh said long-term trends toward warmer temperatures and slightly wetter conditions helped shape the forecast.

However, El Niño tends to have its greatest influence on weather patterns during the winter. Historical data from past El Niño summers suggests a tendency toward cooler-than-normal temperatures, which forecasters also considered.

The competing signals are one reason NOAA is approaching the forecast with caution.

"Overall, temperature and precipitation tools offer either weak or conflicting signals," Pugh said.

For Connecticut residents, the outlook suggests a summer that could be warmer and wetter than average, but not dramatically so.

The precipitation outlook could also have implications for drought conditions across the state.

NOAA's forecast offers some encouraging news for areas still dealing with drought conditions. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, about 24 percent of Connecticut was experiencing drought as of May 19, and NOAA's Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for conditions to improve through the end of August.

While forecasters expect the Northeast's most active severe weather period to fall, as usual, in June and July, NOAA does not issue seasonal severe weather outlooks.